FRIDAY EARLY EVENING: Many estimates for Ballerina currently place it in the mid-$20M range. However, Lionsgate believes there is a solid chance it could reach $30M across 3,409 theaters.
In distribution circles, there’s a strong desire to avoid seeing a well-received movie fail at the box office. Ballerina is rated R, and this demographic typically attends evening showings. The challenge arises from the film’s tracking three weeks prior suggested over $35M, so a dip to mid-$20Ms would be disappointing. As of Friday, including $3.5M from previews, it is just under $11M.
Reports indicate that the production cost was in the low-$90M range, more than 60% of which was covered through international sales. Being part of the esteemed John Wick franchise, Lionsgate aimed to produce the best possible film, which led to a year-long delay for additional photography. The estimated P&A budget in the U.S. is around $45M, with nearly 38% allocated to spots during the NBA Finals, costing hundreds of thousands. Lionsgate has effectively promoted Ballerina, especially with Ana de Armas engaging in extensive promotion.
There are nearly 1,000 PLF auditoriums screening Ballerina.
This summer is particularly competitive; Ballerina, a male-targeted action flick, is released after Paramount/Skydance’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, which is expected to earn around $14M (-49%) in its third weekend across 3,496 theaters. That is an improvement over Dead Reckoning’s $10.6M third weekend, bringing its total to $148.2M by Sunday.
As previously mentioned, the top spot appears to belong to Disney’s Lilo & Stitch, projected to earn between $32M-$34M in its third weekend following a $9M-$10M Friday at 4,185 theaters. Its cumulative gross is estimated to be between $335M-$337M.
Ranking fourth is Sony’s Karate Kid: Legends, seeing $2.3M in its second Friday and estimated to reach $9M in its second weekend, marking a 56% decline. Its cumulative total thus far stands at $35.7M.
