It’s a long-standing tradition among NBA enthusiasts and analysts to jump to early conclusions about free agency roughly a week in. Following this custom, here are the current early winners and losers of this season’s NBA reshuffling:
The Winners
Atlanta Hawks I can recall when a Trae Young-led Hawks squad reached the Eastern Conference finals just a few seasons ago. However, they have since experienced a significant decline from contender status. The brief experiment with Dejounte Murray has ended, and trade discussions about Young have intensified. This season appears to be notably different, largely due to the impressive offseason moves orchestrated by Atlanta’s front office. They managed to persuade the New Orleans Pelicans to part with an unprotected first-round pick next year for a mere 10-slot draft elevation (!! more on that later) and exchanged lesser role players Terance Mann and Georges Niang for Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard. They’ve quickly transformed into one of the more robust teams in the Eastern Conference, especially with standouts like No. 1 overall pick Zacharie Risacher and Most Improved Player Dyson Daniels, along with a returning Jalen Johnson. This is the best opportunity for Trae Young to make a significant impact in a weakened Eastern Conference.
Denver Nuggets The Kroenke family, owners of the Nuggets, could never be seen as frivolous with their finances. Just last week, Josh Kroenke sparked discussion by suggesting the possibility of trading the Best Player on Earth, Nikola Jokić, if their tax obligations became excessive. However, Denver is enjoying a remarkable offseason. They successfully traded the aging Michael Porter Jr. contract, along with a 2032 unprotected first-round pick, for the more fitting Cameron Johnson, whose earnings are half of Porter’s. They also re-signed Bruce Brown Jr. on a minimum deal, a steal for a player they greatly missed. A last-minute change of heart from Jonas Valanciunas, who chose not to sign with Denver to return to Europe, caused brief alarm. Nevertheless, the Nuggets have shifted from “Are they going to waste Jokić’s prime?” to “Legitimate title contender” in just a few days.
Houston Rockets No team is enjoying the offseason more than the Rockets. After an impressive season that saw them become the unexpected No. 2 seed in a competitive Western Conference, without a true superstar, head coach Ime Udoka received a deserved Coach of the Year nomination. They entered the offseason with a promising, youthful roster that still had some gaps, particularly in late-game scoring. Enter Kevin Durant. Houston secured the future Hall of Famer by giving away only the uncertain Jalen Green, the inconsistent Dillon Brooks, and some draft assets. They continued to build by retaining Fred VanVleet, adding backup center Clint Capela, and quietly acquiring 3-and-D wing Dorian Finney-Smith from the Lakers. Now, they find themselves in an enviable position: deep, balanced, and ready to challenge the reigning champion Thunder.
The Losers
New Orleans Pelicans Self-awareness is crucial, especially for an NBA front office, and the Pelicans seem to lack this quality. They kicked off the offseason by trading for Jordan Poole, then followed that peculiar choice with one of the most perplexing draft-day decisions: sacrificing their unprotected 2025 first-round pick just to climb 10 spots in this year’s draft (from No. 23 to No. 13). For context, there’s no assurance that New Orleans will be a play-in team in a loaded Western Conference next season, let alone make the playoffs; the pick they relinquished could easily become the No. 1 overall (especially if injuries continue to plague them). They may have inadvertently given away the rights to generational talent AJ Dybantsa … for merely moving up 10 slots in a draft where they already held two first-round picks. Absurdity.
Milwaukee Bucks We’ve all made rash choices out of fear of losing someone, a fundamental aspect of being human. However, the Bucks’ situation hinges entirely on 31-year-old Giannis Antetokounmpo demanding a trade, a scenario that seems increasingly likely. When Damian Lillard sustained a ruptured Achilles last spring, Milwaukee understandably panicked. But waiving Lillard translates to $22 million in dead money … annually for the next five years. They made this move to clear cap space for signing Myles Turner, who replaces departing veteran Brook Lopez. While Turner is a solid center, he’s hardly a game-changer capable of elevating a near-identical roster of a first-round exit to championship status, especially considering Milwaukee will now pay nearly $50 million between his salary and the Lillard buyout. The instinct to panic is justifiable, but the results could be disastrous.
LeBron James and Luka Dončić From a front-office standpoint, the Lakers are thriving. The team recently sold for a record-breaking $10 billion to Dodgers controlling owner Mark Walter, and they still have the centerpiece of one of the most one-sided trades in NBA history on their roster. Yet, for the star player Luka Dončić and his idol-turned-teammate LeBron James, the outlook is less than promising. The Lakers maintain that they are focused on future flexibility rather than immediate success, but that seems somewhat absurd. After all, when was the last time a true game-changer reached free agency without signing a max contract beforehand? And with LeBron now 40, coming off a season where he placed sixth in MVP voting and made the All-NBA second team, he clearly doesn’t fit that long-term vision. Additionally, Dončić, at 26 and entering his prime, doesn’t have time to wait. While they have technically addressed their glaring center issue by adding Deandre Ayton on a buyout, and made a solid low-cost addition in Jake LaRavia at forward, losing Dončić’s close friend and important contributor Dorian Finney-Smith in free agency has left significant gaps in the roster. There’s little evidence to suggest that the front office feels any urgency to resolve these issues. Both Dončić and James deserve better.
Honorable Mention
Fans of the Indiana Pacers After coming close to a championship and boasting one of the most thrilling young teams in the league, Pacers fans are now facing a year devoid of Tyrese Haliburton and watching a decade-long veteran Myles Turner depart in free agency, allegedly due to ownership’s unwillingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold. It’s been a challenging couple of weeks for Pacers fans, and they have my genuine sympathy.
