Overview of Players Exceeding Expectations in 2025
It’s that time of year again where we evaluate which major league players have surpassed expectations in 2025.
Using ZiPS for Projections
We utilize ZiPS, developed by FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski, to analyze the difference between projected fWAR and actual fWAR for each player. This model considers recent performance trends, aging patterns, injuries, and play-by-play statistics, yielding highly accurate preseason predictions. Therefore, when ZiPS doesn’t meet expectations, it captures our attention.
Criteria for Selection
A player exceeding his projected fWAR does not always indicate a breakout performance; sometimes, the reasons are less remarkable. Often, these situations arise from limited data, especially for those missing significant time in the last four seasons (aged 24-38) or three seasons for others. This list excludes players who were sidelined during 2021 to 2024 (notably Matthew Boyd and Jacob deGrom) and those confirmed out for the season (best wishes, Kris Bubic).
Top 10 Players Who Excelled
This year, we identified 10 players who have remarkably outperformed their projections. Here they are:
Kyle Stowers, OF, Marlins
Projected: 1.1 fWAR, .730 OPS
Actual: 4.0 fWAR, .912 OPS
Stowers has made the largest fWAR gain, with 25 home runs, despite a rough start after joining the Marlins. Although he’s currently on the injured list, he’s proven his hitting capability, significantly improving his pulled airball rate.
Geraldo Perdomo, SS, D-backs
Projected: 2.2 fWAR, .703 OPS
Actual: 5.0 fWAR, .826 OPS
Perdomo has combined his impressive glove work with improved offensive performance, featuring a .287 batting average and 13 home runs, along with competitive on-base metrics.
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
Projected: 0.9 fWAR, .704 OPS
Actual: 4.1 fWAR, 1.054 OPS
As a rookie, Kurtz has stunned everyone with an exceptional performance, hitting .315 and demonstrating consistent power, despite exceeding his expected strikeout rate.
Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Phillies
Projected: 1.4 fWAR, 4.45 ERA
Actual: 3.8 fWAR, 4.10 ERA
Luzardo has regained his form with new pitch mechanics, achieving significant improvements in both strikeouts and overall performance despite past difficulties.
Kyle Schwarber, DH, Phillies
Projected: 2.2 fWAR, .803 OPS
Actual: 4.2 fWAR, .957 OPS
At 32, Schwarber has had a standout year, improving significantly in both batting average and home runs compared to previous seasons, defying earlier trends.
Additional Players on the List
Other notable players include Cal Raleigh, Maikel Garcia, Hunter Brown, and Zach McKinstry, all of whom have outperformed their projections in various capacities, from home runs to defensive contributions.
