FRIDAY PM: Disney’s Tron: Ares is projected to earn $15 million today, aiming for a 3-day total in the mid-to-high $30 million range across 4,000 theaters. A robust Saturday and Sunday will be crucial for the Jared Leto film to reach the $40 million mark.
There’s potential for growth this weekend since it’s Indigenous Peoples’ Day, allowing for a 4-day period. If MLB and NFL draw viewers away on Sunday, there’s hope they might catch the film on Monday. According to Comscore, 45% of K-12 schools and 22% of colleges are closed on Monday.
Currently in the second spot is Warner Bros’ One Battle After Another, along with Paramount/Miramax’s Roofman, both expected to gross around $7M-$7.5M. With Roofman showing in 3,362 theaters and One Battle After Another in 3,127 theaters, the latter is projected to decline by -32% from its second weekend. The cumulative total by Sunday could reach $55.3 million, which is +6% ahead of DiCaprio’s Killers of the Flower Moon at the same stage.
Universal’s Gabby’s Dollhouse ranks fourth with a Friday earnings of $1 million and a weekend projection of $4.2 million, reflecting a -21% decline, bringing its total to $27.2 million.
Sony Affirm’s Soul on Fire is positioned fifth with a Friday gross of $1.4 million, anticipating a 3-day total between $2.5 million and $3 million.
In terms of the overall box office, it’s typically positive for the 3-day Columbus Day period to exceed $100 million. However, it’s evident that this won’t occur this weekend. Following COVID, October’s second weekend performed robustly in 2023 with total earnings of $132.9 million due to the premiere of Taylor Swift: Eras Tour. Even if Taylor Swift: Showgirl had been released this weekend, a drop in numbers would have occurred, yet it would still have enhanced the weekend’s total.
FRIDAY AM: Disney reveals that Tron: Ares has amassed $4.8 million in previews, which includes early shows on Wednesday and previews starting Thursday at 2 p.m. It is hoped that it opens close to its forecast of over $40 million, as the fall season, while slightly ahead of last year at approximately $674 million, lacks vibrancy with multiple adult-targeted films underperforming.
