As the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays compete for the 2025 World Series title, baseball enthusiasts are already casting their sights on 2026. If you’re not rooting for either of these teams, the focus shifts to future possibilities, with fans and analysts speculating about the upcoming season during the MLB offseason.
When discussing the San Diego Padres, payroll often becomes a central topic. Questions arise about how much the team will allocate to construct the roster for 2026.
According to Fangraphs’ projected numbers for the Padres in 2026, the front office is expected to have a budget to work with, presuming a payroll aligned with 2025 levels. The team will have multiple free agents, which could free up funds, as well as over $15 million in savings from players no longer on the payroll.
The Padres concluded 2025 with an estimated CBT payroll of $263,010,391. Although their actual spending was considerably lower, this CBT figure impacts the penalties they incur post-season. With player contracts valued for CBT purposes, this figure does not necessarily reflect the actual payments to players, as many contracts involve graduated salaries.
The Padres’ 2025 CBT payroll exceeded the second CBT threshold of $241 million by over $20 million, resulting in a 20 percent tax on the overage, totaling approximately $4.6 million. Additionally, surpassing the threshold incurs a 12 percent surcharge for exceeding the limit by $20-40 million, leading to a combined tax nearing $7.36 million. The penalties escalate significantly for teams exceeding the threshold in consecutive years, with the CBT limit for 2026 set at $244 million.
With several potential free agents, including Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Luis Arraez, the Padres could see additional financial flexibility. Notably, catcher Elias Diaz has a mutual option that could also reduce payroll if declined. This may establish a baseline CBT payroll for 2026 between $194 to $201 million, allowing room to sign free agents while remaining under the threshold.
Assessing the Padres’ Roster Needs
The Padres are noticeably in need of at least two starting pitchers, with several candidates already on the roster. While Joe Musgrove, Randy Vasquez, and Nick Pivetta are returning, the future of Yu Darvish remains uncertain due to health concerns. The Padres’ bullpen is a strong point, allowing them to potentially part ways with certain free agents. Priorities include acquiring starting pitchers, a right-handed power hitter, and bolstering the bench with short-term contracts. If financial flexibility allows, adding a quality starter and more power hitters will be essential for improving the lineup.
Financial Outlook
The exact budget for President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller remains unclear, as the Padres are generally tight-lipped regarding their finances. Although there were indications last season that spending was limited, the team ended with a CBT payroll that surpassed expectations, suggesting that a competitive roster remains the goal for the upcoming season.
