Bitcoin wrapped up the year with a slight decline, breaking a typical pattern of one negative year followed by three positive ones. The annual drop was modest—around 6%—and minimal compared to historical downturns in prior bear markets. Yet, this subtle red finishing touches upon a symbolic shift in market dynamics rather than a clear sign of weakness.
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Recent on-chain analysis by Axel Adler sheds light on this transformation. Data tracking cumulative Net Taker Flow indicates that aggressive buying peaked around the New Year but has since declined. The market’s momentum has shifted towards selling, albeit not in an extreme manner.
The current indicator is in a moderate negative range, hinting at increased sell-side pressure, yet it remains well above capitulation thresholds. Typically, similar scenarios have been associated with a heightened sensitivity to declines rather than immediate trend reversals. This suggests Bitcoin may experience further weakness if demand does not bounce back, though it is not yet showing stress indicative of deeper bearish cycles.
The key insight is subtlety: Bitcoin is not on the verge of collapse, but its behavior has shifted away from a clear momentum-driven ascent. The transition toward moderate sell pressure, combined with an uncommon yearly close in the red, suggests the market is moving into a more intricate and selective phase instead of following its established cycle pattern.
Derivatives Momentum Turns Cautious as Sell-Side Pressure Aligns
Adler’s findings point to a notable shift in short-term market behavior via the Bitcoin Net Taker Flow momentum metric, which gauges how aggressively traders are positioned on long or short sides. Unlike cumulative flow, this metric responds quickly to shifts in sentiment, offering an immediate outlook on trader behavior changes.
In recent sessions, this momentum measure has decisively turned negative. After remaining positive in late December, it has dropped to around -0.3. While not indicating extreme stress, it firmly places the market in a moderate bearish pressure state. The timing is crucial: the downturn in momentum occurred alongside a decline in cumulative Net Taker Flow, reinforcing the overall signal.
Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Momentum Remains Fragile
Bitcoin is currently consolidating between the $88,000 and $90,000 levels following a sharp decline from recent highs, reflecting a market caught between stabilization and ongoing downside risks. Prices remain below both short-term and medium-term moving averages, indicating that bullish momentum has not been regained.
Notably, the 50-period moving average has become dynamic resistance, while the 100-period average is flattening, supporting the idea of a broader consolidation phase instead of an imminent trend reversal. Importantly, Bitcoin is still above the 200-period moving average, suggesting that from a higher timeframe perspective, the overall structure hasn’t completely broken down. However, the earlier loss of the $100,000–$105,000 zone signifies a regime change from expansion to distribution, leading to increased sensitivity to selling pressure.
