Mysterious Online Bettor Makes $400,000 on Polymarket
A mysterious online bettor earned over $400,000 on Polymarket, a platform that allows users to wager cryptocurrency on real-world events, by accurately predicting the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and the ousting of President Nicolás Maduro.
Concerns Over Insider Knowledge
The visibility of the bets on Polymarket has raised alarms about the potential for insiders, with access to confidential or classified information, to exploit their knowledge for financial gain.
U.S. Military Operation
In the early hours of Saturday, the U.S. military executed a special operation to capture Maduro and his wife, intending to bring them to the U.S. on narco-terrorism charges.
Bettor’s Activity on Polymarket
The account involved has placed only 13 bets, amounting to $33,934.34, all related to the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and Maduro’s removal, between December 27 and January 3. The account’s origin remains unclear, and Polymarket has not provided any comments on the matter.
Timing of the Bets
President Trump suggested in December that Maduro’s time was running out but avoided specifics on an operation against him. U.S. officials indicated that Trump authorized the operation before Christmas, but the precise timing wasn’t widely known until late Friday night, when the bettor placed their largest wager of over $14,000 just before news broke.
Investigation and Legality Concerns
While the bettor’s identity, location, and whether they had inside information remain unknown, they have not attempted to conceal their transactions. Chainalysis, a cryptocurrency transaction analysis firm, indicated that they successfully cashed out their winnings without any signs of laundering.
Future Legislation
Following these events, Congressman Ritchie Torres plans to introduce the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, aimed at criminalizing the use of nonpublic information for financial gain on such platforms. David Chase, a former SEC attorney, noted that while insider information can lead to fraud in commodities trading, legal frameworks have yet to fully address the implications of betting based on similar information.
