By Richard Pagliaro | Thursday, January 15, 2026
Photo credit: Daniel Pockett/Getty
Major finals are becoming increasingly exclusive, resembling members-only events.
World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 2 Jannik Sinner have dominated the last eight Grand Slam tournaments, showcasing an Open Era record of three consecutive final matchups.
The gap between the emerging duo and the rest of the field is substantial, making it feel nearly impossible for others to catch up.
Former world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev believes it is nearly impossible to dethrone the top two players in 2026 due to their superior skills. Medvedev remarked, “When someone plays stronger, runs faster, and serves better, it’s tough to win,” but he encouraged others to keep trying. He noted the significance of Grand Slam events, pointing out that Alcaraz and Sinner reached three out of four finals last year.
According to ESPN analyst Patrick McEnroe, the gap between Alcaraz, Sinner, and the rest of the ATP is even wider than that which existed among the Big Three during their peak. He expressed doubt that any new contenders could emerge, even from players like Ben Shelton, who is showing improvement.
As the Australian Open approaches, both reigning champion Sinner, eager to become the first man since Novak Djokovic to achieve a three-peat in Melbourne, and Alcaraz, aiming to become the youngest player to complete a calendar Slam, are likely to collide in the February 1 final. However, should either of them falter, it poses the question: who might disrupt their final matchup?
Top 5 Potential Upsetters in Melbourne
(4) Novak Djokovic
Ad In: The veteran Djokovic, a ten-time Australian Open champion, returns with ambitions to secure a record-extending 25th Grand Slam title. He remains a formidable competitor, having bested Alcaraz in the 2025 quarterfinals and reached the semifinals in all four Slams last year.
Ad Out: At 38, Djokovic’s age raises questions about his physical resilience, particularly after suffering five consecutive losses to Sinner. The Serbian opted not to play in any tune-up tournaments, which could hinder his performance.
(11) Daniil Medvedev
Ad In: Medvedev, having found success with new coaching methods, won the Brisbane title and boasts confidence from reaching the AO finals three times in the last five years.
Ad Out: However, he struggled in 2025, facing early exits in three majors. A potentially difficult matchup against Learner Tien looms in the fourth round.
(3) Alexander Zverev (GER)
Ad In: Zverev’s powerful serve could prove pivotal; he reached the AO final in 2025 and has performed well at the tournament historically.
Ad Out: Past defeats in Grand Slam finals raise doubts about his mental fortitude, especially against top players like Alcaraz and Sinner.
(8) Ben Shelton (USA)
Ad In: Shelton made headlines last year at AO, reaching the semifinals and demonstrating impressive potential with his aggressive playing style.
Ad Out: His return game requires improvement, which could hinder him in critical moments, especially against formidable opponents early in the tournament.
(5) Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)
Ad In: Despite a modest Australian Open record, Musetti possesses exceptional skills and has shown promise in other majors, recently achieving significant tournament success.
Ad Out: He often struggles when pressured by powerful hitters, leading to inconsistent performances in major tournaments.
(25) Learner Tien (USA)
Ad In: Tien’s adeptness at outsmarting opponents makes him an intriguing prospect, especially after a strong showing against Medvedev last year.
Ad Out: However, his serve lacks power compared to others, posing potential vulnerabilities against stronger players.
