Lotteries and Injuries. Over a decade later, the Philadelphia 76ers continue to be defined by two key factors: lottery results and injuries. The ping pong balls gifted them Joel Embiid, but injuries have limited his availability. Meanwhile, Ben Simmons was ushered in during a lottery triumph, only to exit with unresolved back issues. A shoulder injury to Markelle Fultz could have led to a dynasty that never materialized. The list of misfortunes is extensive.
The situation has come full circle. Now, superstar free agent Paul George, who was expected to propel the Embiid era toward the NBA Finals, will be sidelined for the rest of the regular season. Thus, the 76ers find themselves once more vying for lottery positions.
Historically, this situation is not entirely disadvantageous for them.
In 2023, I analyzed the luck of each team in lottery history. While lottery luck can be somewhat subjective—landing the first pick in a year when Tim Duncan is available carries more weight than a standard top selection—the 76ers have objectively been the luckiest team. As of 2023, they had gained a net total of 24 draft slots through the lottery system, more than any other team. They have moved up relative to their record on eight occasions and have only moved down once. This franchise should be ready to let the basketball gods dictate their fate.
Financial Constraints with Embiid and George
The stakes are higher now than ever. Few teams have put as much on the line in a single lottery as the 76ers have for May’s drawing. Currently, Philadelphia holds the sixth-worst record in the NBA. If their pick falls lower than seventh, it will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Philadelphia’s odds hinge on securing a top draft pick in a strong class, or else they risk coming away empty-handed.
This scenario has historical precedent; in 2003, the Grizzlies faced a similar fate, having a top-1 protected pick owed to Detroit that ended up being No. 2. On lottery night, Jerry West had to endure the wait to see if he would acquire LeBron James or nothing at all. However, the 2003 Grizzlies had some promising stars on their roster, while the current 76ers are burdened by the significant contracts of both George and Embiid.
This season, Embiid and George managed to feature in just 60 games combined yet earned over $100 million. With three years left on George’s contract and four on Embiid’s, along with a lucrative deal for Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia is facing a challenging salary cap situation. Retaining key free agents like Quentin Grimes and Guerschon Yabusele could push them into a tight cap situation. Trading George or Embiid seems unlikely without taking on similarly problematic contracts. The 76ers need quality talent that is also cost-effective.
