Framber Valdez and the Houston Astros reached an $18MM agreement for the 2025 season, successfully avoiding arbitration; however, this appears to be the extent of their contract discussions this offseason. Valdez mentioned at the beginning of spring training that no long-term arrangements had been discussed with his agents at Octagon, an assertion he reiterated to Matt Kawahara from the Houston Chronicle and other media outlets recently.
As Valdez is poised to enter free agency after this season, he responded affirmatively when asked if he would be exploring the market. Although negotiations can still happen during the season, many players prefer to halt contract discussions by Opening Day to minimize distractions once games begin. Despite hints that talks might resume after initial discussions earlier in the offseason, Valdez’s comments suggest that there has been no significant progress in negotiations.
Valdez has been a vital member of Houston’s rotation since 2020, boasting impressive statistics: a 3.12 ERA, a 23.9% strikeout rate, a 7.9% walk rate, and an outstanding ground ball rate of 62.2% over 781 innings from 2020 to 2024. His grounder rate, the highest among qualified pitchers in the past five seasons, and his innings pitched, the seventh most in the league, highlight his contribution to the team’s performance. Although he missed about two months in 2021 due to a broken finger and had a brief stint on the IL last season for elbow soreness, he has largely maintained good health.
In addition to his regular-season work, Valdez has also pitched 85 innings in the postseason, achieving a 4.34 ERA across five playoff runs. While his postseason performance has been somewhat inconsistent, he excelled during the Astros’ 2022 World Series-winning season, recording a 2.07 ERA over 25 innings.
If Valdez continues to deliver strong results in 2025, he is likely to secure a substantial contract next winter as a reliable starter with both durability and postseason experience. However, turning 32 in November and some underlying concerns might explain the Astros’ hesitance regarding a contract extension.
Valdez has allowed a fair amount of hard contact, yet his .282 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) from 2020-2024 indicates some good fortune. While he relies more on an effective slider and curveball than high fastball velocity, his strikeout and walk rates remain above average but not exceptional, putting increased pressure on his ground ball approach to remain effective.
Astros General Manager Dana Brown mentioned in December that the team would consider trade offers for Valdez but emphasized his importance to the rotation. The Astros recently traded another pending free agent, Kyle Tucker, presumably to create financial flexibility while addressing an outfield gap. It’s possible Houston received a more enticing offer for Tucker compared to what they were offered for Valdez or prioritized maintaining a stable rotation, particularly after their pitching staff faced significant injuries in 2024.
Historically, the Astros have been cautious in granting long-term extensions during their successful run over the past decade. Notable extensions include those of pitchers such as Cristian Javier, who signed a five-year, $64MM deal prior to the 2023 season, and Lance McCullers Jr., who inked a five-year, $85MM deal before Opening Day 2021. However, neither of these contracts has worked out as expected due to McCullers’ extended injury issues and Javier’s Tommy John surgery last June.
Despite Valdez’s relative stability and health, the experiences with these previous contracts could be weighing on the Astros’ management, especially since Valdez will likely seek a significantly higher pay rate. Unless there’s an unexpected shift in negotiations between both parties, it appears Valdez may follow other notable Astros stars into free agency, with the team potentially gaining draft compensation through the qualifying offer.
