The NBA is often seen as predictable during the playoffs, but recent trends indicate a shift. Just two years ago, the second round saw all teams ranked between No. 1 and No. 8. Meanwhile, last year’s conference finals included only one team from the top two seeds. Welcome to the NBA’s current era of parity, characterized by tightly contested regular season standings and surprising playoff results.
As we await the beginning of the playoffs, our CBS Sports NBA team is analyzing the first-round matchups to predict which teams will move on to the final eight. While some matchups look clear-cut—like the defending champion Boston Celtics against the Orlando Magic—others are much less straightforward, especially among teams clustered in the middle of the standings.
Here are our staff’s predictions for the first round. While some of our picks may highlight our insightful analysis, others may fall under scrutiny. Based on past NBA playoff trends, brace yourself for unexpected outcomes. With a few dominant teams at the top of the bracket, it’s difficult to predict who will rise as the biggest challengers as the playoffs unfold.
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Miami Heat
Series odds: Cavaliers -8000, Heat +2200 (via FanDuel)
Botkin: Cavs in 4. Miami’s historic journey from 10th to 8th seed is commendable, but without Jimmy Butler, the Cavs dominate.
Herbert: Cavaliers in 4. Despite Miami’s impressive playoff push, Cleveland’s superior talent and top-tier halfcourt defense prevail.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Orlando Magic
Series odds: Celtics -8000, Magic +2200
Botkin: Celtics in 5. The Magic may keep a few games competitive, but ultimately, the Celtics are too strong.
Herbert: Celtics in 4. The Celtics are primed for a formidable playoff start, especially against a struggling Magic offense.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Detroit Pistons
Series odds: Knicks -420, Pistons +330
Botkin: Knicks in 7. Despite Detroit’s defensive prowess, the Knicks’ reliable offense secures a narrow victory in a tough series.
Herbert: Knicks in 6. While Cade Cunningham offers challenges for the Knicks, the Pistons’ experience is lacking against New York’s elite offense.
No. 4 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 Milwaukee Bucks
Series odds: Pacers -176, Bucks +148
Botkin: Pacers in 6. With uncertainty surrounding Damian Lillard’s return, the Pacers capitalize on their strengths against a weakened Bucks side.
Herbert: Pacers in 6. Indiana’s speed could prove too much for Milwaukee, especially if Lillard remains limited in his impact.
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies
Series odds: Thunder -4000, Grizzlies: +1500
Botkin: Thunder in 5: The Grizzlies are formidable, but the Thunder’s dominance becomes evident as they progress.
Herbert: Thunder in 4. Oklahoma’s regular-season dominance suggests they will handle Memphis with relative ease.
No. 2 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 7 Houston Rockets
Series odds: Rockets +138, Warriors -166
Botkin: Warriors in 7. The Rockets’ youth and athleticism pose a challenge, but the Warriors’ experience could tip the scales in a tightly contested series.
Herbert: Warriors in 6. The Rockets are a formidable opponent, yet the Warriors typically find ways to leverage their playoff experience to secure wins.
