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It’s no surprise that my NFL Projection Model ranks the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills as the top three teams in the AFC. However, what may catch you off guard is that the model does not favor the three-time reigning conference champions, the Chiefs, as the leading team.
Currently, the model predicts the Bills as the AFC frontrunners, followed closely by the Ravens, with the Chiefs falling just behind in third place. Of course, one should be cautious about underestimating quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have made it to the AFC title game for seven consecutive seasons. As the season progresses, they could very well reclaim their top spot, but for now, they aren’t viewed as the definitive best team.
While the top three teams have created some distance from the competition, a few other teams are lurking just below, poised to challenge for true contender status. Let’s take a brief overview of each division and outline the win projections for every AFC team as we approach the 2025 regular season.
AFC East
The Bills have dominated this division since Tom Brady departed the New England Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and with reigning MVP Josh Allen leading, it’s reasonable to assume their reign will continue. Allen and the Bills have secured five straight division titles, and my model assigns them a 74 percent chance of earning a sixth. As long as Allen remains healthy, it’s hard to envision Buffalo not winning the East again. However, there’s hope for other teams in the division.
Coach Mike Vrabel is at the helm of a burgeoning Patriots team, with my model expecting them to double their 2024 win total. Vrabel has a solid track record, and with a full offseason for emerging QB Drake Maye and significant roster upgrades, the Patriots could quickly turn things around. Notably, the Patriots will face the easiest schedule in the league according to my forecasts, providing them with the best chance to challenge the Bills.
AFC North
This division features two of the league’s best quarterbacks, but only one (Lamar Jackson) plays for a team (the Ravens) that effectively builds a competitive roster, while the other (Joe Burrow) is with a franchise (the Bengals) that risks wasting another prime season of its star quarterback.
The Ravens have clinched back-to-back division championships and are well-positioned to secure a third. Both the Ravens and Bengals have impressive offenses with their quarterbacks in the MVP conversation, but Baltimore is expected to have a stronger defense. My model gives the Ravens a 55 percent chance to win the North, while the Bengals are at 32 percent.
AFC South
This division promises to be one of the most competitive in the NFL, although none of the teams are true Super Bowl contenders. Currently, my model does not predict any South team to average nine wins. The Houston Texans have won consecutive division titles with 10-win seasons, while the Jaguars previously triumphed with nine wins. The heavy parity in this division is largely due to inconsistent quarterback performances across the board.
The race may ultimately hinge on whether Texans QB C.J. Stroud can replicate his impressive rookie form rather than his lackluster sophomore season, which saw him supported by the worst offensive line in the league, according to my model. A new offensive coordinator could lead to improvements for Stroud. If Houston falters again, the Jaguars, with QB Trevor Lawrence, seem set to take over, bolstered by a new coaching style. My model estimates a 45 percent chance for Houston to win the division, while Jacksonville stands at 26 percent.
AFC West
It’s not surprising that the AFC’s strongest division features three Super Bowl-winning coaches (Kansas City’s Andy Reid, Denver’s Sean Payton, and the Raiders’ Pete Carroll) alongside fourth coach Jim Harbaugh, who possesses one of the highest winning percentages in NFL history.
My projections favor Kansas City to win the division, likely marking its 10th consecutive AFC West title. The last quarterback outside the Chiefs to achieve this was Peyton Manning in 2015. The Chargers and Raiders have not won the division in over a decade. The Chiefs remain the team to beat, though the competition in the division is fierce. My model projects a 60 percent chance of Kansas City retaining the title, with Payton’s Broncos at 21 percent and Harbaugh’s Chargers battling for playoff positioning after last season.
How Mock’s NFL Projection Model Works
This model analyzes play-by-play data to generate offensive and defensive projections for each team. By simulating the season 100,000 times based on these projections, we can estimate how many games each team is expected to win, their playoff chances, and the likelihood of winning their division or the Super Bowl.
