Cryptocurrency analyst VisionPulsed believes that Dogecoin has a limited timeframe—just weeks—for a significant upward movement in its cycle. He argues that if the cryptocurrency fails to rise in November, the current bullish scenario may come to an end, raising concerns about potential declines in 2026.
In a recent video, VisionPulsed highlighted Bitcoin’s weekly moving average as a critical factor influencing market trends, and by extension, Dogecoin’s trajectory. He stated, “By week’s end, Bitcoin must reclaim the $103,000–$104,000 range. Achieving this could open discussions about a potential Dogecoin rally. However, if we close below $102,000—perhaps even $100,000—that would mark an initial confirmation of a bear market.”
Immediate Action Required for Dogecoin
VisionPulsed tied Dogecoin’s outlook to broader market dynamics and momentum across various assets. He pointed out that the “top-10 dominance” outside stablecoins has completely pulled back from the 2021 alt-season. While reaching the upper limits of this long-term channel doesn’t definitively indicate a peak, it underscores the maturity of the current market advance. He clarified that his analysis isn’t solely based on this indicator but aims to assess Dogecoin’s risks given the overall market context.
Bitcoin’s weekly moving average remains a pivotal element, along with several other supporting indicators. “All attention is on $103,000,” he noted, referencing a supertrend signal that resembles a previous March incident when prices dipped but didn’t close below the threshold, thus avoiding a definitive sell signal. In contrast, 2021 saw clear sell signals from confirmed closes below the same moving average.
Dogecoin is particularly sensitive to Bitcoin’s price movements, which can accelerate both upward thrusts and declines. A significant breach below the moving average could effectively close the already narrow opportunity for a Dogecoin price surge. VisionPulsed described the current momentum as “so bearish that it indicates the nearing end of the market cycle,” despite the monthly MACD not having crossed down yet, which still leaves room for a minor rally.
Timing and Price Prediction
VisionPulsed discussed a scenario where Dogecoin might peak in January. However, he emphasized that this possibility appears less realistic unless positive price action begins immediately. “Eighty-one days from now would bring us to January; it’s becoming almost unfeasible to expect a rally that stretches into January, February, or March,” he warned, maintaining that the bullish case hinges on November producing a directional shift.
From a technical standpoint, he identified a potential head-and-shoulders pattern for Dogecoin and introduced a specific downside target where a substantial price drop could occur. He mentioned, “That’s why this little pig is down here,” referring to the possibility of a capitulation zone around $0.05 to $0.06.
If Bitcoin fails to maintain its weekly moving average and confirms this decline, “the pig only comes into play when Bitcoin dips below that moving average,” leading Dogecoin toward a target of “five to six cents.” On the Bitcoin front, he predicted a bear market scenario with a base of $40,000–$50,000, suggesting that both upward and downward trends are diminishing when compared to previous cycles, indicating a potential retracement of 65% to 70%.
Specifically for Dogecoin, he laid out a decision framework: if Bitcoin recovers to $103,000–$104,000 by week’s end and holds above the moving average, the window for a Dogecoin rally would reopen, possibly leading to gains by late Q4 into January. Conversely, if Bitcoin closes below approximately $102,000 and exhibits persistent weakness, “it’s time for a bear market,” suggesting Dogecoin may drop to the “pig at 5 cents,” or potentially lower, depending on Bitcoin’s market behavior.
At the time of writing, Dogecoin was priced at $0.16297.
