Bitcoin may eventually soar to $1 million per coin if it captures a larger portion of the global store-of-value market, currently led by gold and government bonds, according to Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management.
In a report released earlier this week, Hougan noted that the long-term potential of bitcoin relies more on its absorption of the wealth preservation market than on short-term market fluctuations. “One million seems outrageous,” he stated, “implying a 14-fold increase from today’s price.”
He highlighted several factors supporting this prediction, including the rapid expansion of the global store-of-value market, which has grown from around $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion now. Currently, bitcoin constitutes only about 4% of this market.
Hougan posited that if bitcoin captures about half of that market under current conditions, its price could approach $1 million within the next decade. If the overall store-of-value sector keeps growing, bitcoin would require a smaller share to reach that target.
The $1 Million Price Target
The notion of bitcoin reaching $1 million has become a prominent topic within the crypto community. Eric Trump recently reaffirmed this idea, while Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong suggested that bitcoin could achieve this milestone by 2030. Jack Dorsey predicted it could reach $1 million within five years, while Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, forecasted 2028 as a possible timeline. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest estimated bitcoin could hit $3.8 million by decade’s end, with Bernstein targeting $1 million by 2033.
Why has the $1 million benchmark gained such traction? Mati Greenspan, a market analyst, explained that it serves as a clear headline representing the concept that bitcoin could rival gold as a store of value. The specific figure is less significant than bitcoin’s share of global wealth. Jason Fernandes, another market analyst, sees this milestone as more psychological, representing the belief that bitcoin can win the store-of-value debate. He also mentioned the promotional aspect of round figures.
Analysts’ Perspectives on Timeline
While many analysts agree with Hougan’s long-term projection, they frame it more as a decade-long story rather than an immediate forecast. Greenspan noted that geopolitical tensions bolster bitcoin’s rationale, as investors look for neutral stores of value in uncertain times. For Fernandes, the $1 million figure reflects a market-share hypothesis, emphasizing that bitcoin need not completely replace gold; it only needs a slice of a growing global store-of-value market.
Ultimately, the long-term potential for bitcoin to reach $1 million hinges on continued institutional adoption and the expansion of the store-of-value market. Hougan emphasized that bitcoin’s capped supply and decentralized nature give it characteristics akin to gold, while Fernandes reiterated that bitcoin only needs to claim around 17% of a projected $121 trillion market to justify a $1 million valuation. Nima Beni, founder of Bitlease, noted that such a milestone could be expedited if trust in traditional financial assets diminishes.
