Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin’s network has had continuous operation. However, the question of what it would take to disrupt it substantially has remained largely unanswered until recently.
Last week, researchers from the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance released a comprehensive longitudinal study that examines the resilience of the Bitcoin blockchain to disruptions in physical infrastructure. This study analyzed a decade’s worth of peer-to-peer network data in relation to 68 documented incidents of submarine cable failures.
The key finding indicates that for Bitcoin to experience notable node disconnection, between 72% and 92% of inter-country submarine cables across the globe would need to be compromised at the same time.
In light of current geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing issues in the Strait of Hormuz, the study offers a foundational empirical metric regarding Bitcoin’s resilience against being taken offline.
The results illustrate a network that degrades methodically rather than failing abruptly. Through 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations for each scenario, the researchers established that random cable failures have minimal impact. In fact, over 87% of the 68 fault events examined resulted in less than a 5% effect on node connectivity.
While random failures necessitate a substantial percentage of cable outages to affect Bitcoin, the paper highlights a crucial distinction: targeted attacks present a different threat model. Notably, if attackers focus on the cables that serve as critical junctions between continents, they only need to cut 20% of those lines for significant impact. Furthermore, striking the top five hosting providers—Hetzner, OVH, Comcast, Amazon, and Google Cloud—requires just a 5% reduction in routing capacity to produce comparable consequences.
The study also revisits the evolution of Bitcoin’s resilience over time, noting that initial resilience from 2014 to 2017 was higher due to geographical distribution. A concentration of mining operations in East Asia during 2018-2021 lowered resilience considerably, hitting a low of 0.72 in 2021. However, following the 2021 China mining ban, resilience partially rebounded to 0.88 in 2022 before stabilizing at 0.78 in 2025.
As of 2025, 64% of Bitcoin nodes utilize TOR technology, which obscures their physical locations. The study refutes the belief that this obscurity might indicate fragility. Instead, it concluded that prominent TOR relay configurations located in countries with extensive submarine cable connectivity present a more robust defense against disruption. This analysis underscores an evolution towards censorship-resistant infrastructure within the Bitcoin community, which inadvertently strengthens physical resilience.
