Cardinals Face Lineup Dilemma Amid Youth Movement
As the St. Louis Cardinals gear up to infuse younger talent during John Mozeliak’s final season with the organization, their failure to trade Nolan Arenado this offseason has created some challenges. With Arenado securing regular playing time at third base, the Cardinals now have five players vying for three lineup positions: second base, left field, and center field. While none of these five can cover all three positions, Brendan Donovan provides the flexibility to play either second base or left field, tying the outfield decisions to those at second base.
Everyday Roles for Donovan and Nootbaar
Both Donovan and Lars Nootbaar are likely to have guaranteed everyday roles with the Cardinals, with one expected to be the starting left fielder. If Donovan takes over left field, Nootbaar would shift to center, allowing Nolan Gorman to step in at second base—his likely spot had Arenado been traded. Conversely, placing Nootbaar in left field would move Donovan back to the infield, opening center field for either Michael Siani or Victor Scott II.
Comparing Siani and Scott
Siani and Scott are quite similar; Siani is slightly older at 25, while Scott is 24. Last season, they combined to cover nearly 85% of the Cardinals’ center field innings. While both left-handed hitters have struggled offensively in the majors, they are praised for their speed and defensive skills. Siani holds the advantage in major league experience, having played 124 games last year with a disappointing slash line of .228/.285/.285. However, he excelled on the base paths, going 20-for-23 in stolen base attempts and achieving +16 Outs Above Average, a figure placing him in the 99th percentile defensively.
Siani’s Offensive Limitations
Unfortunately, Siani’s offensive performance suggests that his potential for improvement may be limited. He posted a batting average and slugging percentage that exceeded his expected values, and his .322 BABIP might not be sustainable, especially given his speed. This opens the door for Scott, who entered last season as a top-100 prospect and has shown offensive potential in the minors. Although Scott’s .179/.219/.283 line in the majors was worse than Siani’s, their underlying performance metrics were comparable. Scott demonstrated more power, boasting a 5.7% barrel rate compared to Siani’s 2.3%.
Considerations for Gorman’s Inclusion
Another option for the Cardinals is to place Nootbaar in center field. As an established, above-average hitter, Nootbaar would ensure the lineup’s strength regardless of his field position. Transitioning him to center would allow Gorman, a first-round pick in 2018, to enter the lineup. Gorman had a promising rookie season in 2022 but faltered last year with a troubling 37.9% strikeout rate and a lackluster .203/.271/.400 line, although his previous season’s output suggests he may still provide better offense than Siani or Scott.
Making the Best Choice for Center Field
The Cardinals must determine how to approach their center field situation. Should they prioritize Siani’s superior defense, or take a chance on Scott’s potential despite concerns over his offensive capability? Alternatively, they could shift Nootbaar into center to optimize the lineup for Gorman. Each strategy has its merits, and it will be intriguing to see how the Cardinals resolve this complex decision.
