It’s widely believed in the NBA that Cooper Flagg will not return to Duke for another season, and there are significant financial reasons behind this outlook, totaling over $75 million.
As Flagg prepares to lead Duke into the NCAA Tournament, where they are strong contenders for the championship title in San Antonio, discussions about his potential return to the team will arise. He has expressed a desire to stay, telling The Athletic, “S***, I want to come back next year.”
While the college experience is valuable and Flagg is still very young at just 18, the reality is that no one in the NBA believes he would forgo the opportunity to become the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft to return to North Carolina. The reasoning can be summarized in two main points.
Injury Risk
Flagg would likely also be the first overall pick in 2026, as that draft class is anticipated to be deeply talented with potential stars. However, the threat of a serious injury is a major concern. Each time Flagg plays, he faces the risk of an injury that could deter cautious general managers from selecting him at the top of the 2026 draft. With other attractive prospects available, a setback could result in Flagg dropping in the draft rankings.
There is also the concern that a significant injury could affect his performance as a player. Scouts believe Flagg has the potential to be an All-NBA talent, possibly even a top-five player capable of receiving MVP votes. However, any severe injury could threaten that potential or lead to ongoing discussions about his injury history taking precedence over his performance when he is fit to play, similar to cases like Zion Williamson and Kawhi Leonard.
Financial Implications
The primary reason Flagg is likely to enter the 2025 NBA Draft is the financial aspect. This season, his NIL earnings are estimated to be around $4.8 million, the highest for any collegiate basketball player, trailing only Texas quarterback Arch Manning in all college sports. While he could potentially negotiate better deals if he returned to Duke, those amounts would still fall short of what he could earn in the NBA. The 2023 No. 1 pick, Zaccharie Risacher, is earning $13.6 million this season, with a guaranteed $57 million over his first four years, and Flagg’s rookie contract would be even larger due to an expected increase in the NBA salary cap.
Moreover, delaying his entry into the NBA would hinder his ability to start counting toward his second contract—where significant wealth is generated. Players like Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley will soon be eligible for max extensions worth $224.3 million or more, and Flagg could benefit from similar opportunities in the future.
ESPN’s Bobby Marks points out that returning to Duke could potentially cost Flagg between $75 million and $125 million in future earnings as it would postpone his eligibility for lucrative contract extensions. Players with ten years of NBA service can sign supermax contracts, which could provide major financial benefits.
In conclusion, while Flagg undoubtedly cherishes his time at Duke and may enjoy it even more after the NCAA Tournament, the financial risks of staying in college coupled with increased potential for injury make returning an unwise choice. Flagg is a smart player, and it’s highly likely he will declare for the 2025 NBA Draft and be selected first overall.
