Just prior to Stephen Curry setting the NBA record for career 3-pointers in December 2021, his long-time teammate Draymond Green suggested on his podcast that Curry’s record would “definitely be broken” within “five to six years” of his retirement.
Green explained, “The reason is that players like Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell enter the league attempting six or seven 3-pointers per game. In contrast, Curry started with two to three attempts. This shift is largely due to the impact that Curry and Klay Thompson have had on the game.”
“The style of play has transformed because of how Curry and Thompson approached shooting. During my decade with the Warriors, many analysts believed Curry didn’t take enough 3-point shots, and that sentiment continues. This illustrates the changing landscape of basketball and suggests that his record might be surpassed shortly after he retires.”
The idea that Curry’s record could be broken seems valid at first glance. The number of 3-point attempts league-wide has exploded. In theory, a lesser shooter could break Curry’s record purely based on the volume. However, but the likelihood of this happening, especially in the near future, is questionable.
Before diving deeper, let’s consider what Curry’s final count might be. Currently, he stands at 4,008 made 3-pointers. If he maintains an average of 4.4 per game, he will finish the season with around 4,060.
At 37, with a contract lasting until 2027 and a desire to play until he’s 40, Curry could add considerably to his tally. Assuming he manages 250 3s each season over three years after this one, he could reach about 4,800 by 2028. Setting a target of 5,000 may be reasonable, considering the possibility of him playing even longer or making more than 250 per season.
As for players with a chance to approach that milestone, Green mentioned Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell but did not substantiate it with strong evidence. Young’s and Mitchell’s early-career attempts haven’t significantly eclipsed Curry’s efficiency. In fact, Curry’s shooting percentage is historically better, making it tough for anyone to seriously contend with his record.
The potential candidates for this record could include Jayson Tatum, Luka Dončić, and Anthony Edwards. Tatum seems the least likely, having fewer 3s in his first seven years compared to Curry. Dončić also faces challenges in both volume and shooting percentage. Edwards, on the other hand, stands out as the most promising candidate, showing the ability to generate both volume and high efficiency at a young age.
However, even Edwards would need perfect health and consistency to realistically challenge Curry’s numbers. If everything aligned perfectly for him, he might have a shot at it in the distant future. Nonetheless, the prediction that Curry’s record will fall shortly after his retirement seems overly optimistic. Realistically, it may stand for quite some time, if not indefinitely. Achieving something close to 5,000 3-pointers will require a combination of exceptional shooting, longevity, and injury-free play—an unlikely investment for any player.
