With numerous audacious forecasts circulating in the sports world, it’s hard to determine what really qualifies as bold these days. In the spirit of fun and perhaps futility, I’m going to make some predictions for the 2025 MLB season that I believe will genuinely surprise many observers.
Having already made some daring predictions regarding awards earlier this year (some of which I may already regret), here are nine additional forecasts — my starting nine of potential surprises where I might be mistaken.
Let’s consult the crystal ball!
1) A Complete Shift in the American League Playoff Teams
This would be quite unusual but not entirely without precedent. According to MLB.com reporter Brian Murphy, a full turnover occurred in the National League in 2007 during the Wild Card era.
2006: Mets, Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers
2007: Phillies, Cubs, D-backs, Rockies
Considering the playoff format has expanded twice since then, resulting in six teams per league, a complete shift seems improbable. However, the AL appears wide open this year, and while the odds suggest a mere 2% chance, that’s better than nothing!
Analyzing by division:
East: The Yankees, last year’s division champions, are struggling with injuries and challenges in their lineup. The Orioles have their own pitching concerns, while the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays have made notable improvements.
West: Although the Astros remain formidable, they have undergone significant changes. The Mariners and Rangers are potential threats, and the A’s and Angels have been active in the offseason.
Central: This prediction falters here, as it would require the reigning Guardians to falter along with the Tigers and Royals, who seem set to slip back. If the Twins can win the Central and the White Sox don’t rebound from their struggles, it could become plausible.
In my predictions, I see the Red Sox, Twins, and Rangers winning their divisions, while the Mariners, Rays, and Athletics claim the Wild Cards.
2) Both the A’s and Rays Will Make the Playoffs
These teams often get underestimated due to their less recognizable rosters and challenging ballpark situations. Yet, the A’s impressive offseason and late-season performance from last year indicate they could be contenders. The Rays, despite their potential home schedule disruptions, boast strong pitching and a promising lineup if players like Junior Caminero excel.
Having playoff games hosted in Minor League ballparks would be a fascinating spectacle, and personally, that’s the scenario I’m hoping for!
3) Both New York Teams Will Miss the Playoffs
The Yankees face considerable challenges with injuries, particularly with star Aaron Judge, who has struggled with injuries previously. If he misses a significant part of the season again, it could lead to a sub-.500 finish for the Yankees, which hasn’t happened since 1992.
Although the Mets might fare better, competition from teams like the Phillies and Braves could hurt their chances. The NL is tough, and with the Mets’ pitching context being shaky, even significant upgrades might not guarantee a playoff spot.
My prediction for the NL consists of the division-winning Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers, along with Wild Card entries being the Diamondbacks, Braves, and Reds.
4) Individual Player Predictions
Garrett Crochet will strike out 40% of batters faced. Despite no qualified pitcher achieving this in a full season, Crochet has potential in his new role with the Red Sox.
Elly De La Cruz will steal 80+ bases. While I initially thought of 100 steals, aiming for 80 remains a bold feat not seen since Rickey Henderson in 1988. His ability to reach base leads me to believe he can achieve this goal despite significant strikeout rates.
Someone other than Luis Arraez will win the NL batting title. Despite Arraez being a strong contender, his pending free agency might lead to moves disrupting his season, allowing another player to take the batting title.
Vinnie Pasquantino will tie the sacrifice flies record. Having shown notable performance with 13 sacrifice flies last season, there’s a possibility he could tie the record if he can maintain similar opportunities this year.
Sandy Alcantara will be traded to the Cubs by summer’s end. He’s a top candidate for trades given the right situation, and the Cubs might seek to bolster their pitching as they pursue a successful season.
The Phillies will win the World Series. Having been one of the best teams at the All-Star break last year, the core of the team has the potential to regroup and finish strongly this year, aiming for a championship.
And with that, I conclude my predictions—maybe they will come true!
