The 2025 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters is officially underway, marking the beginning of the clay-court season. This prestigious tournament, held at the Monte-Carlo Country Club, features some of the world’s best players competing in the first 1000-level event on clay. Fans can expect intense matchups, as players aim to kick off the European clay-court swing on a high note. Additionally, don’t forget to check out my tournament futures for the 2025 Monte-Carlo Masters. I enjoy offering some pre-tournament picks to follow throughout the event. Furthermore, I’ll be sharing daily tennis best bets starting from the first full day of the tournament. For my best bets on Monday, April 7th, read on below; I may also add additional picks to the picks page. Moreover, I’ll have selections for other tournaments available on that page as well, so becoming a VSiN Pro is worth considering. Our Summer Special is just $59 and provides access until August 1st, giving you a wealth of my tennis insights and coverage across all sports — including our live programming!
Marcos Giron vs. Denis Shapovalov
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Ben Shelton
I anticipate Shapovalov will triumph over Giron on Monday, but I won’t wager on the Canadian if the odds are -200 or less. Instead, I’m pairing Shapovalov to win outright with Shelton to take a set in his match against Davidovich Fokina later in the day. Giron can be a challenging opponent in slower conditions; he covers the court well and has a solid baseline game. However, his serve is relatively weak, which should allow Shapovalov ample opportunities to capitalize on returns. Shapovalov’s serving has fluctuated lately, but he remains the stronger server in this matchup and has demonstrated improved movement in 2025, likely thanks to better health.
Regarding Shelton, I recognize that Davidovich Fokina poses a risky first-round challenge for him. While the Spaniard has a 42-39 clay record, he reached the finals at this tournament in 2022. Nevertheless, his serving is not on par with Shelton’s, which could become problematic during their match. Shelton has improved as a returner compared to 2024, and I believe he will manage to win at least one set. His skills to hit powerful serves and cover the court make him a solid clay-court competitor.
PARLAY: Shapovalov ML & Shelton +1.5 Sets (+121)
Stan Wawrinka vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Backing Wawrinka at this phase of his career can be challenging. His hold percentage has dropped to 72.9%, which is concerning, especially considering his break percentage is at 15.8%. On a positive note, Wawrinka displayed solid performance in Bucharest last week, defeating Timofey Skatov in the Round of 32 and pushing Pedro Martinez in the Round of 16. He also secured two clay victories in a Challenger event in Naples prior to that, showcasing his efforts to remain competitive. I believe Wawrinka has received a favorable draw at Monte-Carlo.
While Tabilo had a strong 2024 season, he currently sits at just 2-9 for 2025. He has a hold percentage of only 78.0% and a break percentage of 17.4%, making him one of the few ATP players underperforming against Wawrinka in these statistics. The reason to be cautious with Tabilo is his recent loss to Jenson Brooksby in Houston, where he accumulated 52 unforced errors, primarily from his backhand. If he cannot address this, Wawrinka will likely exploit this weakness. Wawrinka, who has previously won here, will also have the crowd’s support, which boosts his chances.
Bet: Wawrinka ML (+127)
Karen Khachanov vs. Daniil Medvedev
I’m surprised to see Khachanov offered at plus-money odds against Medvedev. Last year, Khachanov defeated Medvedev in straight sets at this tournament, ending a four-match losing streak against him. Medvedev did manage to beat Khachanov in a tough three-set match in Doha this year, but I don’t believe Khachanov’s past victory was a mere coincidence, especially given that it was on Medvedev’s least preferred surface.
Medvedev holds a clay record of just 37-31, translating to a modest 54.4% winning percentage, while his hard-court percentage is significantly higher at 73.7%. Medvedev’s first-serve percentage has declined from 2024, leading me to question the slight improvement in his hold percentage this year. Considering his struggles in controlling baseline rallies, it’s hard to see him having a successful clay season. Therefore, I’m backing Khachanov confidently as he boasts a 58.0% win percentage on clay and was 8-5 on this surface last year.
Bet: Khachanov ML (+113)
