Economic Implications of a Proposed Casino in Fairfax County
A lobbying flyer circulated among state lawmakers in January 2025 features an illustration of Comstock’s proposed casino development in Tysons. While Fairfax County stands to gain economically from such a venture, an internal review indicates that the financial projections may be less optimistic than earlier estimates.
Projected Revenues and Taxes
According to the county’s Department of Management and Budget, a Fairfax County casino could generate approximately $313.6 million in gaming revenue, leading to $62.1 million in taxes for local and state authorities. The breakdown shows that about $42.4 million would go to the Commonwealth, while $19.9 million would be allocated to the county, following Virginia’s tax regulations for casinos, which generally favor state revenue over local revenue.
Mixed-Use Development Potential
Proponents suggest that incorporating the casino as part of a mixed-use development could enhance financial benefits, potentially leading to an annual local tax revenue of $29.1 million (or $1.2 billion over 30 years) and $53 million annually for the state ($2.2 billion over 30 years). These revenues would assist the county in diversifying its budgetary sources, aiming to reduce reliance on increasing real estate taxes, though the overall impact on the county’s budget would be minimal.
Contrasting Revenue Estimates
MuniCap, which conducted the feasibility study, offers significantly lower revenue estimates than those from a JLARC study and potential developer Comstock Companies. The JLARC report predicted that a Northern Virginia casino could yield an additional $155 million in gaming tax revenue, recapturing some funds currently spent at out-of-state casinos. In contrast, the developer appears to have modeled projections on the successful MGM National Harbor casino.
Debate on Revenue Projections
State Senator Scott Surovell criticized MuniCap’s conservative revenue assumptions, suggesting that the figures do not account for various other revenue sources or the potential for additional facilities that could draw in high-profile events. The MuniCap study focused on a much smaller theoretical development than what Surovell’s proposed legislation stipulates.
Local Government Concerns
While some supporters argue that a casino could stabilize the county’s declining commercial tax base, opposition remains due to concerns over community impact and the relatively unsharable tax revenue split. The Fairfax County Board of Supervisors has expressed reluctance to support casino authorization without a strong community push.
Legislative Updates and Next Steps
The Virginia Senate has previously passed legislation to make Fairfax County eligible to host a casino, but the bill is still pending consideration in the House. If it passes, any development would hinge on a successful referendum to gain community approval, highlighting the significance of local sentiment in determining the future of gambling in the county.
