With roughly three weeks remaining in the NBA regular season, the playoff picture in the Western Conference remains unclear.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have nearly secured the top seed, while four teams—the Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets, and Memphis Grizzlies—are competing for three spots that would grant home-court advantage in the first round. Additionally, the Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers, and Minnesota Timberwolves are in contention for the sixth and final guaranteed playoff position.
A poor week for any of these teams could further complicate the standings. The Athletic’s NBA staff felt it was timely to evaluate the upcoming challenges, how these teams have performed against each other, and more as the season approaches its conclusion:
Competition for Home-Court Advantage in Round 1
Houston Rockets
Record entering weekend: 45-25
Record against peers: 11-6 (1-0 vs. LAL, 3-1 vs. MEM, 1-0 vs. DEN, 2-2 vs. MIN, 1-3 vs. GS, 3-0 vs. LAC)
Advantages: The Rockets possess strong momentum and are eager for more. They are on an eight-game winning streak and are excelling at both ends of the court, ranking first in point differential, second in offense, and first in defense over the past two weeks. Holding a tiebreaker against the Grizzlies could also prove beneficial. However, the upcoming schedule for the Lakers is challenging.
Challenges: Houston faces tough matchups against the Nuggets and Lakers, along with games against the Thunder, Warriors, and Clippers. While their youthful roster has brought success, they lack the playoff experience that veteran teams possess, especially in seeding races. Houston’s recent improvement in shooting is promising, and the potential return of Amen Thompson could enhance their competitiveness.
Los Angeles Lakers
Record entering weekend: 43-26
Record against peers: 12-7 (0-1 vs. HOU, 2-2 vs. DEN, 2-1 vs. MEM, 3-0 vs. GS, 3-1 vs. LAC, 2-2 vs. MIN)
Advantages: The Lakers hold the third-best record in the league since mid-January and have the second-best defense during that span. With a healthy LeBron James and Luka Dončić anticipated to return soon, the Lakers seem well-positioned to reinvigorate their playoff aspirations.
Challenges: Their schedule poses difficulties, with the third-toughest remaining games involving matchups against the Thunder, Rockets, Grizzlies, and Warriors. With several injuries to key players, they may prioritize health over seedings, aiming to finish strongly as April approaches.
Denver Nuggets
Record entering weekend: 44-26
Record against peers: 7-9 (0-1 vs. HOU, 2-2 vs. LAL, 1-1 vs. MEM, 2-0 vs. GS, 2-2 vs. LAC, 0-3 vs. MIN)
Advantages: The Nuggets have a favorable early schedule with games against teams like the Trail Blazers, Bulls, Bucks, and Jazz over the next few games, which could allow them to secure wins and build momentum.
Challenges: The lack of depth may force them to rely heavily on their star players, which could lead to fatigue as the playoffs approach. The outcome will depend on their defensive performance, which has varied in strength recently.
Memphis Grizzlies
Record entering weekend: 43-27
Record against peers: 6-10 (1-3 vs. HOU, 1-2 vs. LAL, 1-1 vs. DEN, 1-2 vs. GS, 0-2 vs. LAC, 2-0 vs. MIN)
Advantages: The Grizzlies have depth on their roster that can help them manage their stars’ minutes and remain competitive through the final stretch.
Challenges: A difficult end-of-season schedule features challenging matchups against teams like the Clippers and Lakers. Losing several recent games and the absence of star player Ja Morant, who is dealing with a hamstring issue, complicate their playoff push.
Competition for the No. 6 Seed
Golden State Warriors
Record entering weekend: 41-29
Record against peers: 8-11 (3-1 vs. HOU, 0-3 vs. LAL, 0-2 vs. DEN, 2-1 vs. MEM, 0-3 vs. LAC, 3-1 vs. MIN)
Advantages: The Warriors’ next games against easier opponents could bolster their chances. They are currently performing well and have momentum following the addition of Jimmy Butler, improving their offensive and defensive capabilities.
Challenges: The need to conserve energy for older players like Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Butler could adversely affect their performance in the remaining games. They aim to secure a playoff spot to avoid the Play-In tournament.
LA Clippers
Record entering weekend: 39-30
Record against peers: 8-11 (0-3 vs. HOU, 1-3 vs. LAL, 2-2 DEN, 2-0 vs. MEM, 3-0 vs. GS, 0-3 vs. MIN)
Advantages: The Clippers hold a perfect record against the Warriors, which could help them secure a favorable position.
Challenges: They have yet to achieve a win against the Timberwolves, which further complicates their playoff quest.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record entering weekend: 40-31
Record against peers: 11-9 (2-2 vs. HOU, 2-2 vs. LAL, 3-0 vs. DEN, 0-2 vs. MEM, 1-3 vs. GS, 3-0 vs. LAC)
Advantages: A favorable schedule lies ahead, with several games against teams with losing records.
Challenges: The Timberwolves have struggled mightily against subpar teams throughout the season, which has hindered their standings. Despite moments of high-quality play, they’ve also lost critical games that could’ve solidified their position.
