Iran’s Proxy Network and Recent Strikes
For over thirty years, Iran has developed a network of proxies to project its influence beyond its borders, aiming to deter adversaries while Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei maintained his power. The idea of direct attacks on Iran seemed unlikely.
A Shift in Perception
This perception of invulnerability changed drastically on June 13, when Israel executed an unprecedented surprise assault deep within Iran, significantly shaking Tehran’s sense of security and dismantling its constructed image of strength.
Casualties and International Response
The strikes eliminated key military figures and several prominent nuclear scientists, with 627 reported fatalities, including at least 49 women and 13 children. Following these events, the U.S. joined Israel by targeting three nuclear sites before declaring a ceasefire the next day.
Iran’s Leadership Reaction
In the wake of these attacks, many fear that Iran’s leadership, now humiliated and under pressure, will tighten its hold domestically while adopting a more aggressive stance in both home and foreign policy.
Shift in Political Dynamics
Israel and the U.S. had anticipated that their actions could lead to regime change, fostering a government more aligned with their interests, but these expectations did not materialize, thus allowing the Iranian regime to claim a form of victory.
Resilience and Increased Paranoia
Iran’s leadership has shown resilience, swiftly replacing the lost figures and initiating severe crackdowns on perceived collaborators. Signs of heightened paranoia suggest a push for stronger internal controls to prevent cooperation with adversaries.
The Future of Reform in Iran
Amidst this backdrop, political dynamics are changing, with reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian advocating for engagement with opponents to address domestic challenges. However, there are increasing concerns over a potential crackdown on reformists as the regime seeks to eliminate dissent.
