The spotlight is on Jurassic World Rebirth until the release of DC Studios/Warner Bros’ Superman next week. The initial buzz kicks off today in Hong Kong and will extend to the U.S., UK, China, Germany, Korea, Spain, and Italy tomorrow, with a potential global box office projection reaching $260M by Sunday.
Breaking it down, international earnings are expected to surpass $130M, as the dinosaurs make their way into Australia, Brazil, Mexico, and the Netherlands starting Thursday. They will move into France and India among other markets on Friday, covering a total of 82 overseas territories, with Japan joining in August.
Universal’s theatrical release will occur in the U.S. tomorrow (not tonight) at around 4,000 theaters, increasing to 4,300 by Friday. The studio typically avoids discount previews on Tuesdays and prefers a strong launch on Wednesdays. The five-day box office forecast stands between $120M-$130M. Universal has reserved most of the PLF screens, taking them from Apple Original Films and Warner Bros’ F1, which is anticipated to pull in over $28M in its second 3-day run.
It’s important to note that movie attendance can decline due to outdoor activities and fireworks during the July 4th holiday. However, if a film generates strong interest, those concerns are often set aside. Distributors would prefer if Independence Day fell on any day but Friday, as Universal has largely dominated the holiday post-COVID, with the notable exception of this year when Disney released Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. Recent July 4th openings that topped box office charts for Universal include 2021’s F9 ($70M), 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru ($123M), and last year’s Despicable Me 4 ($122.6M).
Universal rebooted the Steven Spielberg franchise with Jurassic World in 2015 under Colin Trevorrow’s direction featuring Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard. That first installment remains the highest opener in the 32-year franchise history, raking in $525.5M globally and $208.8M domestically. The subsequent film, 2022’s Jurassic World: Dominion, grossed $1 billion but faced series fatigue, reflected in a dismal 29% critics’ rating on Rotten Tomatoes. A new creative direction was required, leading to the return of scribe David Koepp and the selection of Gareth Edwards, known for his work in the genre with Godzilla and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.
Koepp has crafted a narrative taking place five years after Jurassic World Dominion, in a world where dinosaurs are restricted to equatorial rainforests due to an unhealthy atmosphere. The story centers around colossal creatures whose DNA contains a potential life-saving drug. Scarlett Johansson stars as the leader of a bio-research team, joined by Mahershala Ali, Rupert Friend, and Jonathan Bailey, as they navigate the challenges posed by these monstrous animals.
Audience anticipation is notable, particularly among males over 25, and the overall first-choice interest mirrors that of 2018’s Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. Historical data suggests the prior three installments grossed over $1B globally, with Jurassic World being the standout at $1.67 billion. As presales lead in China for Rebirth, Universal’s recent premiere in Shanghai has generated positive buzz, particularly as the film embarks on its international release in various markets, including a premiere event in London and appearances in Berlin and Paris.
