Following a seemingly optimistic start to a weekly series documenting memorable individual plays by the Orioles during their 2025 season, I’m now faced with the task of addressing a string of disappointing games. That’s the unpredictable nature of Orioles baseball.
This series highlights each Orioles game, pinpointing the pivotal play and identifying the player who had the most significant positive impact in a win or negative one in a loss. The Win Probability Added (WPA) stat, accessible on Baseball Reference or FanGraphs, informs these assessments.
Here’s a recap of the second week of the Orioles’ season:
Game 7
- Result: Orioles fall to Red Sox, 8-4
- Orioles record: 3-4
- Key play: Alex Bregman hits a two-run home run off Charlie Morton in the first inning (-18% to Orioles’ win probability)
- Notable poor performance: Morton (-.321 WPA)
There are many ways to lose a baseball game, but a poor performance by a starting pitcher is a common culprit. Morton’s failure to secure an out before conceding two runs set the team back significantly. His negative impact was deservedly substantial.
Game 8
- Result: Orioles lose to Royals, 8-2
- Record: 3-5
- Key play: Maikel Garcia’s go-ahead two-run single in the fourth off Dean Kremer (-15%)
- Notable poor performance: Adley Rutschman (-.140 WPA)
Rutschman is regarded as the game’s standout poor performer despite a 1-4 night, as he grounded into a double play when the team was trailing by one run. This continued trend of double plays is a significant issue for the 2025 Orioles.
Game 9
- Result: Orioles defeat Royals, 8-1
- Record: 4-5
- Key play: Gary Sánchez’s impactful two-run single in the second inning (+17%)
- Hero of the game: Tomoyuki Sugano (.237 WPA)
Solid pitching can significantly influence a team’s success. Sugano’s effective pitching over 5.1 innings helped maintain early leads, marking a promising outing following an earlier struggle.
Top and Bottom Orioles Performers
After the initial week, the best WPA among Orioles batters was Ramón Urías (0.35), while Yennier Cano had the best pitcher WPA (0.15). Jordan Westburg led in fWAR (0.6).
Conversely, Jorge Mateo had the lowest WPA among hitters (-0.33), and Cionel Pérez was the worst pitcher (-0.22). Mateo’s fWAR also ranked the lowest at -0.3.
