US stock futures rose on Monday as investors monitored the potential for a US government shutdown, which could delay the crucial monthly jobs report due later this week.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) increased by approximately 0.4%, while futures for the S&P 500 (ES=F) climbed by 0.5%. Likewise, contracts for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) also gained 0.5%, positioning major indices to extend Friday’s recovery.
Investors are weighing the chances of a government shutdown as the deadline looms on Wednesday, amidst a standoff between Republicans and Democrats. A meeting scheduled for Monday between President Trump and congressional leaders is viewed as a critical opportunity to avert a halt in federal funding, with shutdown odds reported at over 70% by Polymarket.
The uncertainty surrounding the shutdown creates doubt about the timely release of key economic data, including the highly anticipated jobs report on Friday, which is essential for the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions affecting interest rate projections that have supported stock prices.
Last week’s economic data showed lower jobless claims paired with upward revisions to GDP growth, which sparked speculation that the Fed might not lower rates as aggressively as previously expected. This heightens the focus on the September jobs report, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 43,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate steady at 4.3%.
Meanwhile, investors are regrouping after a challenging week that exposed weaknesses in AI-related stocks and responses to a surprise tariff announcement from President Trump set for October 1. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped 0.3%, marking its weakest week since early August, while the Nasdaq (^IXIC) fell 0.7%; the Dow (^DJI) lost 0.2%, ending a three-week winning streak.
Despite recent setbacks, stocks are still projected to conclude September and the third quarter with gains. The S&P 500 has risen 2.8% month-to-date, while the Dow has increased by 1.5%. The Nasdaq has surged 2.9%, primarily driven by technology stocks.
