The 2024 season for the NL Central was rather unimpressive in terms of overall performance, with only the Milwaukee Brewers making it to the playoffs. Interestingly, the fifth-place Pirates had a respectable 76-86 record, marking the best performance among all fifth-place teams in Major League Baseball.
Overall, the pitching within the division was decently average, highlighted by the rookie of the year, Paul Skenes, and first-year star Shota Imanaga. However, several pitchers who had previously shone, such as David Bednar, Miles Mikolas, and Nick Lodolo, saw a decline in their performance. This raises questions about their struggles and whether they can regain lost form or move forward in 2025.
David Bednar emerged as a top-tier reliever for Pittsburgh in 2021, gradually moving into high-leverage situations and securing the closer role in 2023, where he registered a 2.00 ERA/2.53 FIP over 66 games and 39 saves. However, 2024 was a setback for Bednar, as he posted an almost 6.00 ERA and suffered an oblique injury that sidelined him.
Looking ahead to 2025, Bednar aims to make a significant comeback, especially with uncertainties looming over the Pirates’ bullpen. Despite the challenges, analysis of his performance suggests that his ability wasn’t the primary issue—his command dipped, as demonstrated by a career-high 10.6 BB%, but his velocity and movement remained stable, with a four-seam fastball averaging 97.2 mph and a splitter that achieved a 110 Stuff+ rating.
The concern lies in Bednar’s command issues, particularly after a minor lat injury during spring training in 2024. This injury possibly led to an increase in walk rates and changes in how he pitched within the strike zone.
Turning to Miles Mikolas, he struggled in 2024 with a 5.35 ERA/4.24 FIP across 32 starts for the Cardinals. Despite a downturn in 2023, he is only two years away from an elite 2022 season where he recorded a 3.29 ERA/3.87 FIP over 202.1 innings. As he approaches the final year of his two-year, $40 million extension with the Cardinals, Mikolas faces an important year in 2025 to showcase his value beyond his durability.
Lastly, Nick Lodolo had a commendable 2024, making 21 starts with a 4.76 ERA/3.95 FIP while dealing with various injuries. His development has been inconsistent since a strong debut in 2022, and entering 2025 healthy, he appears capable of elevating his performance. While his strikeout rate dipped and his walk rate increased in 2024, he still possesses the skill set to become an above-average starter. However, pitching at Great American Ball Park, known for its hitter-friendly environment, poses a concern for his long-term success, and he will need to manage strikeouts and ground balls effectively moving forward.
