Football betting expert Jones Knows shares his predictions and insights as the Premier League gears up for a busy weekend.
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
With over 15 years of experience in Premier League betting, certain strategies have proven effective when applied correctly. A significant one is to take Sean Dyche’s teams seriously when on a winning streak.
Once Dyche’s philosophy takes root and the players commit to a disciplined, no-frills style, their performance stabilizes, becoming more reliable. This consistency is vital for identifying trustworthy teams to bet on.
In their last six matches across the Premier League and Europa League, Nottingham Forest resembles a classic Dyche squad, having conceded only two goals. Expect a fiercely contested match filled with duels and set-pieces, where Dyche’s teams excel.
While Leeds can also play this way, they have recently shown signs of anxiety. Although both teams prefer similar styles, Nottingham Forest has the upper hand in player and managerial quality, making the draw no bet option for Forest at 11/8 with Sky Bet appealing.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Manchester United vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm
This season has seen a record number of goals from dead-ball situations, especially corners, highlighting the value of centre-backs with aerial prowess. Harry Maguire, one of the top set-piece attackers in football, has been limited in playtime but returns in fine form.
With four shots in just 281 minutes since his return, Maguire’s expected goals total is a notable 0.62. His headed shot price at 10/11 with Sky Bet is worth considering, as he has recorded a headed shot every 177 minutes across the last six seasons, outperforming only Virgil van Dijk.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Arsenal vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
Arsenal’s home game against less competitive teams is always a tricky betting scenario, with the Gunners listed at 1/5 with Sky Bet. Alternative options like the over/under 2.5 goals line are correctly priced, so creativity is needed for new betting angles.
Consider backing Trai Hume’s price for committing over 2 fouls at Evens with Sky Bet; he has averaged two fouls in his last eight starts and is positioned as an inverted wide midfielder, likely to engage in fouls during a high-energy match against Arsenal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3pm
Bournemouth consistently makes the most fouls in each half against Aston Villa, now priced at 11/10 with Sky Bet. This trend has persisted across their last five encounters, attributed to tactical dynamics between the teams.
Villa’s fast-paced play forces Bournemouth into reactive defending, leading to a higher foul count. Statistically, Bournemouth averages 17 fouls per game against Villa’s 10, making a bet on Bournemouth to win the foul count sound.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Newcastle vs Brentford, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Rico Henry to receive a yellow card at 9/2 with Sky Bet is an intriguing option, especially given the likely fouls on that flank. Henry will face Anthony Elanga, known for drawing cards from opponents with his quick pace and direct play.
Since last season, Elanga has drawn 20 yellow cards through his aggressive style. With his recent strong performances, including a stunning goal against Manchester City, the timing for this bet appears favorable.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Liverpool’s odds at 11/8 with Sky Bet are enticing. Their defense has returned to last season’s form, allowing only 0.75 goals per game over the past 13 matches, reflecting improvements after prior vulnerabil ities.
Conversely, Manchester City’s defensive setup is showing worrying signs, making them susceptible to big chances as they did last season. Since their draw with Chelsea, they’ve allowed 1.6 expected goals against per 90 minutes.
If City doesn’t tighten their defense, Liverpool could exploit them, making a home team handicap at -1 with Sky Bet at 7/2 a valuable wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Liverpool -1 handicap (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows’ Best Bets…
- 1pt double on: Kyle Walker to be carded & Liverpool -1 handicap vs Man City (18/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1pt on Yerson Mosquera to score for Wolves (16/1 with Sky Bet)
