2026 Projections Take a Hit
Despite the San Diego Padres making several additions early in Spring Training, their projections for 2026 have taken a downturn according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus). In January, projections indicated several players would experience declines, and the absence of high-caliber talent acquisitions has negatively impacted the team’s outlook for the upcoming season.
Projected Records and Player Performance
Currently, FanGraphs forecasts the Padres to finish with a record of 79-83, placing them fourth in the NL West, while PECOTA offers a slightly improved prediction of 80-82. Given the departures of key players like Dylan Cease, Luis Arraez, Yu Darvish, and Robert Suarez, the existing team’s poor performance last year limits the potential uplift from recent additions.
Offensive Struggles Persist
Only Jackson Merrill is projected to improve compared to last season, as other position players are expected to perform worse or maintain their current levels. Bench players Luis Campusano, Nick Castellanos, Sung-Mun Song, and Bryce Johnson are all forecasted with fWARs below 0.8, putting additional pressure on the starting roster.
Pitching Projections Fall Short
The starting pitching outlook isn’t encouraging either, with Michael King projected for 161 innings at a 3.68 ERA. Other starters like Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove face declines in their projections. Additionally, Randy Vasquez and Germán Márquez are not projected to fare well, compounding concerns about the rotation’s strength.
Playoff Odds and Competition
The Padres’ playoff chances are overshadowed by teams like the Los Angeles Angels and St. Louis Cardinals, with the Dodgers having a 94% chance to claim the division. Meanwhile, the Padres hold just a 1.2% chance to win the division and a 22.1% chance to make the playoffs, dramatically down from previous projections.
Hope for Improvement and Character Counts
While projections rely heavily on statistics and algorithms, they often overlook factors such as player determination and character. With a mix of health and performance stability from key players, like Tatis Jr. and Machado, the Padres could exceed current predictions. Additionally, potential trade opportunities still exist for A.J. Preller to enhance the lineup before the season begins.
