The season is still in its early stages, making it premature to draw conclusions about struggling hitters or pitchers. One game can entirely shift the narrative on their performance. Take Rafael Devers, for example.
When analyzing pitchers, we can use consistent physical pitch characteristics rather than only relying on fluctuating results. Tools like Stuff+ enable us to identify pitchers who are showcasing strong pitch shapes and velocities but are experiencing unsatisfactory outcomes, suggesting they may eventually improve.
So, who are the pitchers who have an ERA over 5.00 while boasting a Stuff+ rating above 100 after their first two outings? The list is intriguing.
Poor Results Despite Promising Stuff
| Pitcher | Team | Innings | Stuff+ | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE |
10.2 |
103 |
8.44 |
|
| BOS |
9.2 |
100 |
6.52 |
|
| PHI |
11.1 |
103 |
6.35 |
|
| SEA |
11.0 |
100 |
5.73 |
|
| ATL |
10.0 |
102 |
5.40 |
|
| NYY |
17.1 |
116 |
5.19 |
|
| PIT |
8.2 |
107 |
5.19 |
|
| DET |
9.0 |
109 |
5.00 |
The pitchers on this list range from seasoned starters to promising prospects and recently transitioned relievers. Let’s spotlight a few who may see better outcomes soon.
Carlos Rodón, Yankees
Rodón has seen a dip in velocity, currently averaging 94 mph compared to 95.2 mph last April. Yet, metrics suggest that his pitching still holds promise due to the addition of a usable sinker and an expanded pitch repertoire with the Yankees. However, this expanded arsenal has led to a higher walk rate. His changeup’s control has proven problematic, as indicated by its poor location metrics, potentially complicating his game given that he’s relied on it more than in the past five years.
Bryce Miller, Mariners
After a rough outing against the Giants, Miller expressed his focus on improving his fastball command. Current data supports his claim, as his Location+ for the fastball is significantly below his career average. The disparity is minor, around 3 to 4 inches on mislocated pitches, but it emphasizes the importance of command. With a growing arsenal and further development, he should be able to find success moving forward.
Tanner Houck, Red Sox
Following a successful previous season, Houck hasn’t found similar success in the current one, despite increased velocity. Key indicators suggest potential struggles, notably in command reflected in unimpressive strikeout and walk rates. His low arm slot may make him vulnerable to significant platoon splits, with left-handed hitters currently exploiting him significantly more than right-handers. His 2025 Stuff+ ratings across different handedness highlight this ongoing challenge.
Jackson Jobe, Tigers
Jobe has the potential to excel against both lefties and righties, with every pitch against lefties scoring over 108 in Stuff+ ratings. However, disappointing results include a low 17.5 percent strikeout rate and a 5.00 ERA. He could be struggling with command as he approaches maximum velocity, resulting in an increased walk rate. Streamlining his pitch repertoire might help improve his results as he gains confidence and experience.
(Top photo of Bryce Miller: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
