The long-debated topic: are Spring Training stats worth our attention? The response varies—sometimes, yes, and sometimes, no.
The affirmative typically concerns pitchers, tracking metrics such as velocity spikes, effective new pitches, and overall health post-injury. Consequently, these changes prominently influence Average Draft Position (ADP), with pitchers experiencing the most significant fluctuations on draft boards.
In contrast, the negative aspect applies mainly to hitters, unless there’s a notable alteration in their approach. For example, Elly De La Cruz has adopted a new batting stance and seen success (he currently holds a 4.5 ADP, with limited upward mobility but a recent uptick to 4.1). ADP movements with hitters often stem from anticipated role changes or injuries affecting other players. Thus, it’s wise to avoid overvaluing Vinny Capra‘s lead in home runs or Jerar Encarnación‘s RBIs, but noteworthy performances like Michael Busch‘s 12 RBIs and 10 Runs deserve scrutiny.
Typically, an ADP increase is steady, akin to ascending a staircase, while a drop—particularly if linked to injuries—resembles a fall from a window. It’s crucial to remember that steep declines are often reactions to situations that may present value opportunities.
We will analyze the NFBC’s average ADP for the extended weekend of March 13-17 and compare it to figures from February 13 to March 12.
The Risers
Spencer Strider – 119.5 to 106.5 (up 13 spots)
Strider’s ADP is on an impressive upward trajectory. Following a stellar debut where he posted an ADP of 79 in recent drafts, expect him to soon enter the top 75, with some fluctuations possibly pushing him into the top 50.
In his recent outing, he threw 27 pitches, landing 23 for strikes and striking out six batters, including five in succession. However, caution is warranted as Strider was not facing Boston’s top hitters. His success included fastballs reaching 98 mph and superb offspeed pitch command. When adjusting your rankings, consider his potential workload and whether you can afford to place him on an injury list. With a normal progression, he should be able to pitch five innings around mid-April.
Sandy Alcantara – 155.3 to 137.8 (up 17.5 spots)
Alcantara, the 2022 Cy Young winner, also gained buzz for hitting triple digits with his fastball and not allowing earned runs in Spring Training. However, concerns regarding his strikeout rate and performance post-surgery raise questions about his inflated ADP—while he can be effective in real-life baseball, his fantasy value may be less appealing due to lower K-rates.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – 239.1 to 212.2 (up 26.9 spots)
Strand’s rise comes amid a shallow First Base pool and his return from injury after a rocky start last season. Now healthy and showing improved performance, he could be a valuable pick, especially as he’s likely to secure a starting role despite starting at the bottom of the lineup. A strong start could see him rise quickly in draft rankings.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – 136.3 to 123.0 (up 13.3 spots)
PCA is experiencing a resurgence this Spring with impressive stats, indicating potential for a breakout season. While past inconsistencies exist, his elite speed and recent performance could position him for a strong season ahead, assuming he improves critical hitting metrics.
The Fallers
George Kirby – 69.6 to 168.7 (down 99.1 spots)
Injury concerns have significantly affected Kirby’s ADP as he deals with inflammation in his shoulder. If he progresses without setbacks, he may end up on the injured list for about a month. Despite this drop, he remains a valuable pitcher, especially for those who can manage streaming options until he’s back to full strength.
Marcus Semien – 89.3 to 97.0 (down 7.7 spots)
Semien’s value has decreased amid a lackluster performance last season and an emerging depth in the Second Base position. Despite missing time due to illness and a low Spring average, he may still be a reliable option, especially in points leagues where his low strikeout rate shines.
Brandon Nimmo – 173.9 to 192.5 (down 18.6 spots)
Like others, injury woes have impacted Nimmo’s draft position, but if healthy, he has the potential to bounce back from a subpar season with high runs and RBI totals. While he could drop slightly in the batting order, don’t overlook his value, particularly in light of his performance consistency over the past few years.
