Rick Pitino and John Calipari are among the most divisive figures in college basketball, and they will face each other as they aim to lead their respective teams to the Sweet 16. Pitino’s No. 2 seed St. John’s Red Storm will take on the No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Saturday. St. John’s (31-4) is hoping to achieve its first Sweet 16 appearance since 1999, marking a record as Pitino has now taken six different programs to the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Arkansas (21-13) seeks to return to the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five years, although it would be Calipari’s first year at the helm of the program. The Razorbacks’ leading scorer, Adou Thiero (knee), is uncertain as he missed the first round.
The matchup will be held at the Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, R.I., with the game set to start at 2:40 p.m. ET. The latest odds show St. John’s as 7.5-point favorites against Arkansas, while the total points over/under is set at 146.5. Before making any predictions for the Arkansas vs. St. John’s game, it’s advisable to review predictions by the SportsLine Projection Model.
This model simulates every Division 1 college basketball matchup 10,000 times and enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament with a record of 228-166 (+2025) on top-rated college basketball predictions since 2023. The model has consistently generated brackets outperforming over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four out of the last six tournaments and has accurately predicted 24 upsets in the first round by double-digit seeds. Following the model could yield significant returns.
Currently, the model is focused on the St. John’s vs. Arkansas matchup and has finalized its March Madness forecasts. Visit SportsLine now to view the model’s predictions. Here are the odds and lines for the game:
- Spread: St. John’s -7.5
- Over/under: 146.5 points
- Money line: St. John’s -313, Arkansas +251
- St. John’s has a 7-2 record against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games
- Arkansas is 4-1 ATS during their last five games as an underdog
- Picks for St. John’s vs. Arkansas: See them at SportsLine
Why St. John’s Can Cover
Pitino’s halftime speech during the current season, which gained significant attention from a documentary, could be worth revisiting after an impressive second-half performance where St. John’s outscored Omaha 50-25 during their 83-53 first-round win. The team has thrived on a strong defensive strategy, ranking 22nd in the nation for scoring defense (allowing 65.5 points per game).
RJ Luis Jr., a junior guard and Big East Player of the Year, shone brightly against Omaha with 22 points and eight rebounds, hitting 5 of 8 3-pointers. He scored 29 points and grabbed 10 rebounds in the Big East Championship, showcasing his talent when it matters most. Under Pitino’s leadership, St. John’s boasts the eighth-best scoring margin (+13.3) in the country this season, with Pitino’s notable success including two national titles and a 55-21 record (.723 winning percentage) in his NCAA Tournament career.
Why Arkansas Can Cover
Despite a rocky start with five consecutive SEC losses, Arkansas found new life towards the end of the season under Calipari. They managed to win four out of their last five SEC games before going 1-1 in the SEC Tournament, securing an at-large bid to the tournament. The Razorbacks pulled off an upset against Kansas with a 79-72 victory in the first round, powered by 22 points from senior forward Jonas Aidoo.
Freshman Boogie Fland made a significant return in the first round after recovering from thumb surgery, contributing six points, three assists, and three steals. Fland, a notable scorer averaging 14.6 points per game, adds crucial depth to an Arkansas team already led by fifth-year senior guard Johnell Davis, who has valuable NCAA Tournament experience from his time at Florida Atlantic. Check the picks for this game here.
How to Make St. John’s vs. Arkansas Picks
SportsLine’s model favors the Under in this matchup, predicting a combined total of 145 points. It also outputs an against-the-spread pick that has been successful in over 50% of the simulations. You can exclusively access the model’s selections through SportsLine.
So, who will prevail in the matchup between Arkansas and St. John’s, and which side of the spread is favored in more than 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to discover which side of the St. John’s vs. Arkansas spread to support, based on an advanced model that has yielded over $2,000 in winnings from its top-rated college basketball picks.
