Fernando Tatis Jr.: Career Overview and Future Prospects
As he approaches his 27th season, Fernando Tatis Jr. holds an impressive career record including a 137 wRC+, an average of 5.4 fWAR per 600 plate appearances, and accolades like two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. Only a handful of players in MLB history boast such a strong resume after their first six years.
However, compared to his explosive debut in 2021, when he hit 42 home runs and stole 25 bases, there is a sense that Tatis’s performance has plateaued. His Baseball Savant page was glowing with red statistics during his breakout, resembling an offensive powerhouse similar to Shohei Ohtani. Initially, Tatis exhibited elite skills across various metrics, showcasing his physical talent.
The root of his challenges can largely be traced back to a left shoulder dislocation suffered in April 2021, which hindered him throughout his stellar season that produced 6.8 fWAR. This injury necessitated surgery in September 2022, marking a lost season as he also dealt with a fractured left wrist and an 80-game suspension for performance-enhancing drug use. This suspension overshadowed his early achievements.
After six seasons, Tatis has yet to achieve a year where he remains healthy and matches his potential MVP-level performance. However, optimism surrounds his chances for a turnaround in 2026, with signs that he may regain or even exceed his prior levels of play.
Examining his exit velocity, Tatis formerly set a league-leading mark of 95.9 mph in 2020, the highest for a qualified hitter up until Aaron Judge surpassed it in 2024. Though his shoulder injury in 2021 reduced his average exit velocity to 93.9 mph, it dipped even further to 91.9 mph upon his return in 2023. His bat speed also revealed a fall to the 66th percentile, indicating he was performing well but not at his peak level.
The return of Tatis in 2023 wasn’t as impactful, with drops in both batting average and power, evidenced by a fall in his HR/FB rate from 32% in 2021 to 17% in 2023. Yet, in 2024, he demonstrated improvement; both his exit velocity and bat speed increased, marking him as closer to his former self as he built strength further from his surgery. This growth carried into last season, yet he reported the lowest isolated power (ISO) of his career, with slugging at a low .446 despite nearly 700 plate appearances.
Despite the improvement in his underlying metrics, Tatis faced a puzzling situation where his performance did not align with expectations, notably ranking in the 4th percentile for sweet spot rate, indicating suboptimal contact. His actual slugging was significantly lower than expected, implying that fortune had not been on his side. Evidence suggests a return toward the mean is likely, especially considering that this metric can vary significantly from one season to another.
Recent trends show promise as well: Tatis has consistently reduced his strikeout rate, achieving a career low of 18.7% in 2025, alongside a career-best walk rate of 12.9% and a chase rate of 24.4%. Additionally, his agility remains unquestionable, with a personal best of 32 stolen bases last season. Since switching to right field in 2023, he has also proven to be an elite defender.
In summary, while Tatis’s recent seasons haven’t been as captivating as his initial years, his future looks bright. There’s a strong argument to be made that his best performances are yet to come, potentially starting this year.
