Phil Jackson, renowned for his Hall of Fame basketball career, often shared insightful wisdom for managing some of the sport’s biggest personalities. While navigating the challenges of the NBA season, he frequently turned in-season obstacles into tools to keep his players engaged and focused.
The “40 Before 20” Rule
One of Jackson’s concepts that has gained popularity among NBA enthusiasts in recent years is the “40 before 20” rule. Historical data suggests that an NBA team achieving 40 wins before they incur 20 losses stands a solid chance of winning the championship. An impressive 18 out of the last 19 titleholders have met this criterion, and this trend is even more pronounced over the decades.
Current Candidates for 2025-26
Following the Boston Celtics’ loss to the Denver Nuggets and their drop from the 40-20 standings with a 38-20 record, the 2025-26 season now features three contenders: the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs, and Detroit Pistons, all of which exhibit strong potential ties to a championship run.
Historical Importance of the 40-20 Rule
NBA history places the Thunder, Spurs, and Pistons in a favorable position for a title pursuit. Law Murray, an NBA writer for The Athletic, has thoroughly examined the significance of the “40 before 20” rule throughout the decades. The rule has particularly gained support in the modern NBA era since the introduction of the 3-point line in 1979, while still being applicable across various historical contexts.
Counterclaims and Competitors
However, just because a team meets the 40-before-20 standard doesn’t guarantee a championship. Numerous other teams present formidable competition, as seen in recent playoffs. While the Thunder stand as favorites, sportsbooks have the Denver Nuggets ahead of the Spurs, with the Cavaliers and Celtics also ranking higher than the Pistons.
The Challenge of Championship Goals
For teams not attaining 40-before-20 status, history indicates they will likely need to defeat one or more of these three teams to secure a championship. Murray emphasizes that while being a 40-before-20 contender is ideal, defeating such a team can also lead to success, as seen with teams like the 2021 Bucks and 2006 Miami Heat.
Monitoring the Number of Losses
Another critical statistic to watch as the playoffs approach is whether teams can remain under 30 losses for the season. Since 1979, only the 1995 Houston Rockets and the 2006 Miami Heat won titles with 30 or more losses. It’s essential for contenders to maintain solid performance as the season wraps up.
