On Wednesday, the NBA schedule includes six games, highlighted by the New York Knicks facing off against the Los Angeles Clippers, as New York plays its second game in a back-to-back series. The Knicks, who have a record of 5-6 overall and 2-9 against the spread in back-to-backs, have been giving up an average of 127.5 points in their last four games of this nature. This raises the question of whether you should focus on Clippers player props when making NBA bets for Wednesday. James Harden (foot) is a game-time decision, while Kawhi Leonard has an over/under set for total points at 22.5, a total he has exceeded in his past six games. Should you consider incorporating Leonard’s scoring total into your NBA prop bets? Additionally, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering a +400 payout for Leonard to score at least 30 points, a mark he last reached on March 18 against the Cavaliers.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has delivered over $10,000 in returns for $100 bettors on its top-rated NBA picks in the last six seasons. Now, the model has unveiled its projections for popular NBA player props this Wednesday.
Jamal Murray Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (+128)
Murray has recorded at least two steals in two of his last four games, leading the model to project him for 1.5 steals on Wednesday. This gives him a solid chance to meet this threshold, especially since he has registered a block in two out of his last five games. With Nikola Jokic (ankle) likely out against the Bucks, Murray may have an increased workload in a game expected to be fast-paced. He has surpassed this total in 60% of his home games this season, making the +128 odds on Bet365 a compelling bet.
Mikal Bridges Over 3.5 Rebounds (+142)
Bridges has taken on a bigger role in the absence of Jalen Brunson (ankle) for 12 games, successfully surpassing the 3.5 rebounds mark in eight of those games. Recently, he has exceeded this number in three out of four games. After tallying just one rebound on Tuesday, the model suggests that the current odds might be an overreaction, presenting a good opportunity. The model projects Bridges to record 3.6 rebounds, with FanDuel Sportsbook offering the best price at +142 odds.
Josh Hart Under 6.5 Assists (+110)
Hart recently recorded 11 assists in a triple-double performance on Tuesday; however, he hasn’t reached more than six assists in the second leg of a back-to-back in his last five tries. He has also fallen short of his assist over/under total in eight of his last 10 home games against teams with winning records (like the Clippers). While several sportsbooks provide plus-money odds for this bet, DraftKings Sportsbook currently features the most favorable odds at +110, with the model forecasting Hart will finish with approximately 6.1 assists.
Alex Sarr Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-116)
This bet is seen as a buy-low opportunity, as Sarr has gone under this total in two consecutive games. However, before these two outings, he exceeded this figure in eight of nine games. He remains aggressive in shooting, a key aspect of successful PRA wagers. Sarr attempted 19 shots on Monday, finishing with 16 points, and he’s been averaging 17 field goal attempts over his last six games. Given the struggles of the Wizards this season, Sarr is expected to have ample opportunity to increase his stats, and the model predicts he will total 30 for points, rebounds, and assists combined.
Nic Claxton Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
Due to the absence of Cameron Johnson (rest) and backup center Day’Ron Sharpe (knee) on Wednesday, Claxton is likely to see increased minutes and usage. The 25-year-old center recorded 19 points and seven rebounds in 27 minutes against the Mavericks on Monday, and the model forecasts him to gather 13.2 points and 10.6 rebounds. Claxton has averaged 10 rebounds in his last four contests. As he faces the Raptors, Claxton has previously recorded 16 points and 10 rebounds in a matchup earlier this season. His points and rebounds total has increased recently, so it may continue to rise as game time approaches.
Looking for More NBA Picks Tonight?
These are just a few of the model’s top NBA player prop picks for Wednesday. If you’re interested in more projections, check out SportsLine for detailed projections on every player prop.
