Image credit: Will Warren (Photo by Thomas A. Ferrara/Newsday RM via Getty Images)
One of the smartest strategies in redraft leagues is to identify and acquire the “next big thing” before your competitors do.
In 2022, Spencer Strider emerged as a valuable pick-up in leagues with waivers. Last year, Jackson Merrill surprised many by delivering top-tier fantasy value straight out of the draft. Projection systems tend to have broader error margins regarding prospects compared to established major league players due to the limited data available on prospects. Additionally, the transition from minor leagues to the big leagues often involves an adjustment period for even the most talked-about prospects, where their weaknesses can be exploited.
Speculating on which prospects will yield the most fantasy value in a season can be quite lucrative. However, one must weigh the opportunity cost of investing in a rookie over a proven major league player, especially given that rookies may not see significant playing time.
Essentially, while investing in prospects during redraft leagues can be highly beneficial, it is essential to choose the right players at the right cost. We’re here to assist you in making those choices.
Below, we present our rankings of pitching prospects expected to deliver at least 75 quality innings in the major leagues by 2025. We also include their average draft position (ADP) in NFBC Draft Champion (15-team roto) leagues over the past two weeks to offer insight into the market’s opinion of these pitchers.
This list features notable names that have the potential to provide significant current-season value, combining quality performance with a sufficient number of innings.
1. Roki Sasaki, RHP, Dodgers (ADP: 88)
Roki Sasaki, the No. 1 prospect already in the starting rotation, stands out as the top-ranked pitching prospect for redraft leagues. The price in the late sixth round appears justifiable considering his high upside, unicorn splitter, and favorable team situation, counterbalanced by his limited track record and the potential risk associated with his arm. He shares a similar draft vicinity with Tyler Glasnow and Hunter Greene, both also high-risk, high-reward options. Among the trio, it’s a tough choice, as they all present significant upside coupled with injury concerns.
2. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Rangers (ADP: 314)
Kumar Rocker’s resurgence has garnered much attention due to his impressive per-inning projections. With injuries to Jon Gray and Chad Bradford recently, it is almost guaranteed that he will achieve 100 innings this season in the majors.
3. Will Warren, RHP, Yankees (ADP: 392)
Will Warren is positioned in the Yankees’ rotation following injuries to Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil. His opportunity seems assured, and he appears to have improved his pitch arsenal this season. His impressive spring training performance indicates enhanced movement on both his sinker and sweeper, while his command will be crucial for his success.
4. Andrew Painter, RHP, Phillies (ADP: 378)
In the lead-up to the draft season, Painter and Jackson Jobe were regarded almost equally as top pitching prospects. Painter’s expected rotation spot for a contending team seemed promising. However, reports suggest he won’t debut until later in the season, likely limiting him to around 80 innings, which requires careful consideration of his value for the current season.
5. Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers (ADP: 242)
Jackson Jobe’s diverse pitch arsenal has gained attention on social media, displaying impressive velocity. However, with a modest ball percentage and potentially limited innings, his inclusion at the current ADP might not be the best investment, especially considering the availability of other pitchers.
Overall, careful evaluation and strategic planning in selecting prospects can lead to considerable gains in redraft leagues, and we’ve provided a solid starting point for your drafting decisions.
