Predictions for the Mutua Madrid Open on Tuesday, April 29th
This week marks the 2025 Mutua Madrid Open, with top tennis players gathering in Madrid for two significant 1000-level tournaments. I will provide daily updates with my top betting picks for matches at the Caja Magica, so be sure to return to VSiN if you’re interested in placing bets. Additionally, check out the picks page for my wagers on various smaller tournaments and Challengers.
As we embark on a thrilling period in the tennis calendar, several 1000-level events will lead into the major tournaments, creating an exciting atmosphere. We will be covering all these events, featuring my articles as well as Gill Alexander’s exceptional insights on A Numbers Game. If you’re a tennis enthusiast, now is an ideal time to consider subscribing to VSiN Pro! For just $59, you can gain access to all content until August 1st!
With that in mind, take a look at my best bets for the Mutua Madrid Open on April 28th and April 29th.
MORE: Visit our Pro Picks page for insights from our experts.
NOTE: Due to power outages in Spain, most of Monday’s matches were rescheduled for Tuesday. I added one new pick to my Monday article and adjusted its title. All bets are still available except for the Gauff/Keys parlay.
Belinda Bencic vs. Coco Gauff
Donna Vekic vs. Madison Keys
I typically don’t back Gauff, but considering her potential when serving effectively and executing her forehand with power, she becomes nearly unbeatable. However, her recent performances have shown inconsistencies. Despite this, I expect Gauff to prevail against Bencic in Madrid, even after losing to her in Indian Wells. Bencic performs better on hard courts, and her clay-court movement is less effective. Gauff’s defensive skills will challenge Bencic significantly. Excluding Gauff’s first set against Dayana Yastremska, her subsequent sets have been impressive, making me believe Gauff will win even if Bencic produces good play.
To optimize my odds on Gauff, I’m combining her moneyline with Keys’ moneyline. I’ve seen Vekic cover the game spread recently, but my confidence lies more in Keys winning this match, given her strong serve and adaptability in Madrid’s conditions.
PARLAY: Gauff ML & Keys ML (-105 – 1.5 units)
Gabriel Diallo vs. Cameron Norrie
Alexandre Muller vs. Frances Tiafoe
This parlay suggests that Diallo wins a set against Norrie and Tiafoe wins a set against Muller. Although Diallo’s previous clay-court performance raises some concerns, he is a strong server facing a vulnerable one in Norrie, who’s been less consistent recently. I don’t predict Diallo will win outright but believe he can push it to a decisive set.
Meanwhile, I expect Tiafoe to avoid a straight-set loss, as he operates significantly better than Muller. Their recent encounter ended with Tiafoe winning decisively, making me confident he can exhibit similar performance in this match.
PARLAY: Diallo +1.5 Sets & Tiafoe +1.5 Sets (-123 – 1.5 units)
Diana Shnaider vs. Iga Swiatek
Swiatek’s current season is still impressive, yet her 22–7 record is a decline compared to her previously dominant streaks. As opponents find ways to challenge her, Shnaider’s aggressive play could pose threats, especially in Madrid’s altitude that suits her style. While Swiatek’s experience offers an edge, the 5.5-game handicap seems favorable considering Shnaider’s potential to keep the match competitive.
Pick: Shnaider +5.5 Games (-112)
Taylor Fritz vs. Casper Ruud
Though Ruud has proven clay-court success, the fast play in Madrid may not favor him as much. Fritz’s strong serve and ability to adapt to quicker conditions make him a solid pick for this match. Given his performance at the US Open against Ruud, I believe he can replicate that success in Madrid and capitalize on Ruud’s vulnerability.
Pick: Fritz ML (+115 – 1.5 units)
Additional Plays
For more options, visit the Pro Picks page. I often have additional plays that contribute to my record and success, so be sure to refresh that page throughout the day for updates on my 250-level and Challenger-level bets.
