Top Tennis Bets from Barcelona, Munich, and Stuttgart for April 16
This week features significant 500-level events on both the ATP and WTA Tours. I will be providing tennis betting recommendations from Sunday through Thursday, with my plays for most semifinals and finals available on the picks page. Be sure to check for insight into 500-level tournaments such as those in Barcelona, Munich, and Stuttgart, along with my selections for smaller tournaments and Challengers listed on the picks page.
We are entering an exciting time in the tennis calendar, as numerous 1000-level tournaments are approaching, leading up to the majors. All of this action will be covered, whether through my articles or the valuable work of Gill Alexander on A Numbers Game. If you’re keen on tennis, now might be a good time to get a VSiN Pro subscription for just $59, granting full access until August 1!
With that said, check out my best bets for Wednesday, April 16, from Barcelona, Munich, and Stuttgart.
Sebastian Baez vs. Holger Rune – Barcelona
At the beginning of the season, I would likely have favored Rune in this matchup, given my high regard for his game and potential to eventually win a major. However, Rune has had a peculiar start to the 2025 season, showing promise with a semifinal appearance at Indian Wells and a Round of 16 finish at the Australian Open. Still, he has also withdrawn from several matches, raising concerns about his fitness. Rune suffered early exits in his last two events before arriving in Barcelona, and his recent performance in a win over 37-year-old Albert Ramos Vinolas was less than impressive.
Given Rune’s current struggles, I see value in backing Baez at +130 odds. Baez ranks among the top performers on clay, accumulating 24 match wins over the past 52 weeks. He also holds a 3-2 record against Rune in ATP-level matches, with all three wins coming on clay, including a victory in Rome in May 2024.
Baez’s grinding style, characterized by long rallies and heavy topspin, could exploit Rune’s fragility. If Rune finds himself in a tough spot, I could see him opting to retire early. I recommend betting on Baez for the win.
Pick: Baez ML (+130)
Ella Seidel vs. Tatjana Maria – Stuttgart
While Maria is a seasoned player, at 37, her best tennis appears to be behind her. Although she remains dangerous on clay due to her variety and shot precision, her ability to consistently finish points is in question. Seidel, on the other hand, has a solid baseline game with powerful topspin strokes, making her quite capable on clay.
Seidel’s movement and powerful play should allow her to handle Maria’s groundstrokes effectively. While her lack of experience could be a factor, the 20-year-old has proven herself by winning numerous matches in the early 2025 season. With a favorable opportunity against a wild card in Maria, I expect Seidel to perform well.
Pick: Seidel ML (-146 – 1.5 units)
Elise Mertens vs. Diana Shnaider – Stuttgart
Shnaider’s recent performance shows some improvement, yet she has struggled this season with a 9-9 record. Her previous success in 2024 seems distant, and without her best form, she is unlikely to outplay Mertens. The Belgian has an impressive 68-36 clay record and is 26-9 against left-handed opponents, including a dominant win over Shnaider in Monterrey in 2023.
Mertens’ reliability makes me confident in her ability to win this matchup, while Shnaider’s inconsistency raises doubts about her chances of finding her rhythm in this particular match.
Pick: Mertens ML (-125 – 1.5 units)
More Betting Options
For more picks and insights, check out the Pro Picks page, where I typically post additional plays that contribute to my overall success. I plan to add more selections throughout the day, and my wagers for 250-level and Challenger events will exclusively be found there.
