Tennis Betting Picks for Rome on May 13th
The world’s top tennis players are currently gathered in Rome for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, the last 1000-point clay court event of the season. This tournament not only offers a chance to win a trophy at Foro Italico but also serves as a critical opportunity to gain momentum ahead of the French Open. I will be analyzing the matches, so return to VSiN for daily betting picks. Read on for my recommendations for May 13th, and don’t forget to visit the picks page for insights on smaller tournaments and Challengers.
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Matchup: Arthur Fils vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev has faced criticism for his performance since the Australian Open, but he appears to be regaining his form. The German has won nine of his last 10 matches and recently claimed a clay-court title in Munich before heading to Madrid. He aims to continue his winning streak in Rome, where he’s the reigning champion. However, Fils is a formidable opponent, having recently defeated Zverev in a tightly contested match at the Miami Open, and the young Frenchman is quickly approaching the ATP’s Top 10. Yet, Zverev excels on slower clay surfaces, which may work to his advantage.
Playing against Zverev in slower conditions can be challenging because his serve remains a strong asset, while his opponents may struggle to produce similar holds. The gritty conditions make it difficult to win easy points—something that favors Zverev, who stands at 6-foot-6 and can effectively return serves. His break percentage on clay over the last year stands impressively at 27.6%, showcasing his ability to dominate despite the challenges.
Moreover, Zverev’s height and agility allow him to be nearly impenetrable at the baseline, and his powerful backhand is among the best in the sport. If his forehand is on point, he’s a tough competitor to beat. In this matchup, Fils may not be able to generate enough pressure on Zverev’s serve, especially given the slower conditions that may dampen the effectiveness of his own serve. If Fils struggles with his first serve accuracy, he will likely face an uphill battle throughout the match.
Pick: Zverev ML (-150)
Matchup: Tommy Paul vs. Alex de Minaur
De Minaur holds a 5-0 lead against Paul in their head-to-head encounters, and I see little reason for that trend to change. There was a time when Paul could have been considered the superior clay player, but those days seem to have passed. Over the past year, De Minaur boasts a 13-5 record on clay, showing consistent performance and taking a higher Elo rating than Paul.
This matchup presents challenges for Paul, whose playing style is quite similar to De Minaur’s, but the Australian seems to excel in all aspects. He is a more proficient returner, has a stronger forehand, and displays clearer strategies in his gameplay.
The ability to return serves effectively can greatly influence the outcome, particularly in these challenging conditions where holding serve is tough. Given that Paul isn’t known for his serving prowess, a poor day could lead to De Minaur breaking his spirit.
Pick: De Minaur -1.5 Games (-129 – 1.5 units)
Matchup: Peyton Stearns vs. Elina Svitolina
Svitolina’s performances against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro and Hailey Baptiste were lackluster, but she rebounded impressively with a 6-4, 6-2 victory over Danielle Collins in the Round of 16. Since arriving in Europe for the clay tournament circuit, she has claimed 12 out of 13 matches, with her only loss being a tight contest against world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in Madrid.
It’s hard to overlook Svitolina as a favorite to continue her streak, particularly against a less experienced opponent like Stearns. Svitolina is inherently the stronger player, and this becomes even more apparent considering Stearns’ recent performance issues, including illness during her match against Naomi Osaka. I have reservations about Stearns’ capacity to perform at her best, leading me to favor Svitolina.
Pick: Svitolina -3.5 Games (-120)
Additional Betting Options
For those interested, I have many more betting picks available on the Pro Picks page. These selections contribute to my overall record and play a significant role in my past successes. I plan to add a few more picks, so be sure to refresh that page throughout the day. My action at the 250-level and Challenger events will be posted exclusively on the Pro Picks page.
