New York —
Economic Warning Signals
Economic indicators are flashing red.
Impact of the Government Shutdown
Significant tariffs are once again a topic of discussion. With the government shutdown, no official economic data will be released. When government operations restart, it remains uncertain who will lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), as the current administration has had to retract its controversial first choice.
Reliability of Economic Statistics
Typically, when the government is operational, we have access to regular reports that gauge the US economy’s health. However, during this shutdown, those reports will cease since the agencies responsible for them cannot operate without Congressional funding.
Delayed Reports and Uncertainty
Consequently, the monthly jobs report from the BLS, expected this Friday, will be postponed until the shutdown concludes. The same applies to two critical inflation reports scheduled for release in the coming weeks.
Implications for Investors and Businesses
In the absence of these reports, investors, policymakers, and business leaders—who are already grappling with the unpredictable nature of tariffs, attempts to influence the Federal Reserve, and sporadic international bailouts—are left in the dark.
Chilling Effects on Hiring and Investment
As the shutdown persists, more economic indicators may be postponed, increasing overall uncertainty. Without sufficient staff, the BLS cannot gather employment data, risking delays in the September and October reports.
Systemic Risks to the Economy
“This shutdown is more than just a temporary issue,” noted Mohammad Elahee, a professor of international business. “It represents a systemic shock that could risk pushing the US economy toward a recession in 2026.”
