Strategic Gamble at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix
At the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, three drivers—Esteban Ocon, Gabriel Bortoleto, and Jack Doohan—decided to switch their tyres after the initial safety car incident during the first lap. They all began on medium tyres but made the change to hard tyres to try and complete the race without an additional stop.
While Ocon and Bortoleto stuck to their strategy of running the hard tyres, Doohan ultimately opted for another pit stop on lap 32. Their decision didn’t yield significant results; though they initially advanced during the pit sequence, they eventually fell back in the rankings due to the tyre discrepancy with those who made their stops later. Ocon finished the race in 14th place, while Doohan managed to overtake Bortoleto in the late stages to finish 18th.
Theoretical Scenario for Yuki Tsunoda
Had Yuki Tsunoda not suffered damage after an early clash with Pierre Gasly at Turn 4, one could speculate whether he could have benefited by adopting the same strategy as Ocon, Bortoleto, and Doohan. Could this choice have led him to score points?
To analyze this, we can consider the hypothetical performance of Ocon and Bortoleto’s race laps and create an optimized degradation model for the hard tyre. It’s important to note that the three drivers who changed tyres rejoined at the back of the pack post-safety car, so we can place Tsunoda at the end of that group and begin our analysis from lap four.
Performance Analysis
In terms of time lost, we observed that Bortoleto significantly lost ground between laps 21 and 27, while Ocon also experienced delays, albeit to a lesser degree. These losses factor into our conservative estimate for Tsunoda, as he too may have faced challenges from quicker traffic. We can assume he would benefit from the safety car period to maintain a competitive position.
Upon resuming the race, we project that Tsunoda could start with some time loss to Bortoleto, but would quickly warm up his hard tyres and consistently clock in laps in the 1m34s range. However, the gap to the leaders, specifically Verstappen, remained substantial. Despite this, the calculations indicate that Tsunoda could have finished the race in eighth place, just ahead of Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon.
Conclusion: A Missed Opportunity
While Tsunoda’s projected performance appears optimistic, it highlights that had he avoided terminal damage, he could have scored points. This would have provided a valuable opportunity to enhance his standing, especially as the race remained competitive with a viable gap between Hamilton and Sainz. This alternate strategy might not have significantly altered the lead placements but could have substantially helped him recover from the early race chaos.
