UFC 326 is set to take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this weekend, featuring an exciting main event with Max Holloway facing off against Charles Oliveira for the “BMF” title.
The action begins at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday and can be streamed via Paramount+.
One important insight I’ve gained in gambling, particularly with MMA, is the necessity to consider why market predictions may be flawed, rather than simply forecasting outcomes.
A betting line fundamentally represents a market where we can either “buy” or “sell” results, typically reflecting the true odds of an event through efficient price adjustments.
In MMA, while markets tend to be less efficient due to greater information disparities compared to leagues like the NFL or NBA, inefficiencies do exist. To succeed in betting over time, identifying these discrepancies is crucial.
This article aims to highlight instances where variance has favored one competitor over another, revealing inefficiencies in the betting lines. Key factors include split or controversial decisions, short-notice fights, unexpected injuries, and out-of-weight-class contests.
UFC 326 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Max Holloway (-215) vs. Charles Oliveira (+165)
The main event at UFC 326 marks a rematch more than ten years in the making, with Holloway having previously won by TKO due to an injury sustained by Oliveira back in 2015. Although their past encounter is interesting, it holds little relevance for this weekend’s bout.
Holloway is defending the “BMF” title for a second time following a memorable victory over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 and a defense against Dustin Poirier last July. Oliveira, meanwhile, is coming off a submission win against Mateusz Gamrot last fall and has previously finished both Gaethje and Poirier.
Given that this fight has been scheduled for some time, the betting line appears fairly accurate. As both fighters are renowned for their finishing prowess, there aren’t many controversial decisions to consider. Although the line initially opened closer, it has shifted towards Holloway, making it seem roughly correct for now—resulting in no early betting recommendations.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Gregory Rodrigues (-205) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+170)
This card also features a rematch between Brazilians Gregory Rodrigues and Brunno Ferreira in the opening fight. Ferreira made his UFC debut on short notice against “Robocop” in 2023 and secured a first-round knockout.
Both fighters have strong grappling backgrounds, but they often lean on their striking ability, resulting in 60% of their combined UFC bouts ending in knockouts. Ferreira has focused on his Judo skills recently, achieving two armbar victories in 2025, while Rodrigues has suffered four career knockouts.
Given these factors, I was surprised to see Ferreira listed as the underdog. The line has already begun to shift, prompting me to place my bet at +175 with Caesars, with plans for additional inside-the-distance prop bets later this week.
Verdict: Rodrigues Undervalued
Long Xiao (-155) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+130)
My early confidence in betting on the UFC 326 prelims revolves around two significant factors regarding Long Xiao’s somewhat fortunate rise in his UFC-related career.
Xiao competed in the Road to UFC tournament, winning close decisions to earn a spot in the UFC, albeit with a lackluster performance since then against lower-tier opponents compared to Cody Garbrandt.
Garbrandt, despite having faced tough competition since his title reign, boasts a solid performance record. Interestingly, 73% of predictions on Tapology favor Garbrandt, with the betting line starting to tilt in his direction—making a bet on “No Love” at +130 a wise decision now.
Verdict: Garbrandt Undervalued
Alberto Montes (-185) vs. Ricky Turcios (+154)
Also highlighted through Luck Ratings is Ricky Turcios, who holds a UFC record of 2-3, with both of his victories coming via split decision. On the flip side, his losses have been unanimous decisions or stoppages.
Alberto Montes comes off a recent Contender Series victory, demonstrating impressive finishing ability with seven out of ten wins coming by stoppage. Montes is gaining momentum, and I suggest taking the -185 at DraftKings while still available.
Verdict: Montes Undervalued
