Liam Heslin (known as LiamPicksFights) is an avid combat sports enthusiast with over ten years of experience in wrestling and grappling martial arts. He provides detailed breakdowns for each UFC event, focusing on MMA DFS and sports betting for RotoGrinders.
The UFC is set to return to Kansas City for the first time since 2023, featuring a welterweight title eliminator match between the charismatic Ian Machado Garry and the rising star “Nightmare” Carlos Prates, who is entering this bout on an 11-fight win streak. We will kick things off with the prelims, as there are numerous fights to explore.
Note: All DFS salaries are sourced from DraftKings, and all odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
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MMA DFS and Betting Analysis: UFC Fight Night – Machado Garry vs. Prates
Joselyne Edwards ($9,000) vs. Chelsea Chandler ($7,200)
Fight Odds: -340 Edwards vs. +250 Chandler
Weight Class: W135lb. (Women’s Bantamweight)
Joselyne Edwards (5-4 UFC) has struggled with weight issues, missing the limit in 3 of her last 5 matches—however, those were the bouts she won. This matchup highly depends on whether either fighter can make weight. Chelsea Chandler (2-2 UFC) has also missed weight twice since transitioning to the bantamweight division after the featherweight class was dissolved. While she previously made weight in the featherweight division, her bantamweight scale readings have struggled since June 2019.
Joselyne’s strategy should focus on striking, utilizing her 2” reach advantage and more refined striking skills. Although her takedown defense looks robust on paper (61% compared to Chandler’s 33%), she has not faced opponents with as much grappling prowess as Chandler. Edwards has secured victories against lower-tier fighters, while her defeats have come from more notable adversaries, suggesting her wins may not reflect elite-level performance.
In contrast, Chelsea Chandler appeared less prepared in her last fight against Yana Santos, yet managed a comeback in the final round. She has demonstrated the ability to control her opponents on the ground and can deliver effective ground-and-pound when in a dominant position. However, her striking is not particularly sophisticated, but her willingness to engage allows her to initiate action leading to takedowns.
There’s potential for Chandler to outperform expectations if she can secure takedowns, so it’s advisable to wait for the weigh-in results before making any betting decisions. Chandler opened as a +190 underdog, which has since shifted due to public betting.
Prediction: Chelsea Chandler wins against Joselyne Edwards via TKO in Round 2 or Split Decision (Low Confidence)
Roberto Romero ($8,300) vs. Timmy Cuamba ($7,900)
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About the Author
Liam (a.k.a. LiamPicksFights) is highly passionate about combat sports with over ten years of experience in wrestling and martial arts. He delivers engaging content regarding mixed martial arts from a betting perspective each week, along with various guest prognosticators. When not analyzing fights or creating content, he enjoys training in jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or planning his next endeavor. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights
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