UFC Perth Main Card Insights: Odds, Analysis, and Predictions

This weekend (Sat., Sept. 27, 2025), the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is set to take place at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, for UFC Perth. This marks the third international event in just four weeks, following their usual strategy of showcasing local talent. In fact, this event is particularly packed, featuring 14 scheduled bouts, even after a recent cancellation. Many fighters on the card are relatively new to the promotion, so it could be an opportunity to discover some hidden talents.

Let’s dive into the analysis and predictions for the four main card matchups leading up to the main event:

Light Heavyweight: Jimmy Crute (-185) vs. Ivan Erslan (+154)

Best Win for Crute? Modestas Bukaukas For Erslan? Bogdan Gnidko
Current Streak: Crute triumphed in his last fight, while Erslan is on a two-fight losing streak.
X-Factor: Crute has a reputation for losing leads late in fights.
Matchup Insight: This is expected to be a solid 205-pound contest, comparable to the originally intended co-main event.

Crute possesses strong wrestling capabilities and is well-versed in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. However, his gas tank and striking defense have been issues in a division filled with powerful strikers. Erslan, a former KSW champion, is still finding his footing in the UFC and is known for his aggressive style.

The straightforward question in this matchup is whether Crute can fend off a potential late comeback. He’s technically superior in most areas and should find opportunities for takedowns, potentially even securing an early submission finish, similar to his victory over Marcin Prachnio. If that doesn’t happen, Erslan will be relentless, presenting a genuine challenge, especially given Crute’s past struggles when fatigued.

Nonetheless, this matchup favors Crute, who has only lost to higher-level competition than Erslan. Therefore, I don’t anticipate any change in this context while fighting in front of his home crowd.

Prediction: Crute by decision

Featherweight: Jack Jenkins (-285) vs. Ramon Taveras (+230)

Best Win for Jenkins? Jamall Emmers For Taveras? Sirhey Sidey
Current Streak: Both fighters lost their last matches.
X-Factor: Taveras has difficulty making the Featherweight limit.
Matchup Insight: This duel promises to be an exciting striking contest.

Both fighters are aggressive strikers. Jenkins is renowned for his devastating low kicks, capable of stopping opponents in their tracks. Taveras is also a fierce striker who combines punches effectively and isn’t hesitant to engage in exchanges.

Although the odds suggest a significant gap, it appears that Jenkins has the advantage in striking, particularly since both fighters are unlikely to attempt takedowns. Maintaining good defense will be crucial for Jenkins, as low kicks should eventually wear down Taveras.

While Taveras will certainly create challenges, it likely won’t be sufficient to secure a win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Jenkins by decision

Welterweight: Jake Matthews (-425) vs. Neil Magny (+330)

Best Win for Matthews? For Magny? Johny Hendricks
Current Streak: Matthews has secured three consecutive victories, while Magny won his last fight.
X-Factor: Magny is known as a seasoned spoiler.
Matchup Insight: These odds seem excessive.

At 31, Matthews has been part of the UFC for over a decade and possesses a wide range of skills. He has displayed exceptional boxing and jiu-jitsu in various bouts. However, his inconsistency has kept him from climbing the ranks. Magny, on the other hand, is a consistent fighter, adept at clinch work and frustrating opponents.

Matthews has the capability to win but often falters against opponents who match him in wrestling prowess. He may seem ahead initially against Magny but will have to contend with the latter’s relentless style of pressure and clinch fighting, which could shift the fight’s momentum.

Prediction: Magny by decision

Lightweight: Tom Nolan (-155) vs. Charlie Campbell (+130)

Best Win for Nolan? Bogdan Grad For Campbell? Trevor Peek
Current Streak: Nolan has three straight wins, while Campbell has a 2-0 record in the UFC.
X-Factor: Campbell is a short-notice replacement.
Matchup Insight: A battle of rising striking talents.

Nolan, at only 25 and standing at 6’3″, is an emerging kickboxer known for keeping opponents at bay with slick striking. In contrast, Campbell is a dynamic combination puncher who aggressively pursues foes.

This clash appears to contrast “volume versus power,” with Nolan favoring quantity and diversity in his strikes, while Campbell tends to land heavy hits. If Nolan can avoid Campbell’s power shots, he is likely to edge ahead as the bout progresses.

Ultimately, I believe Nolan’s striking has the potential to command respect, with accurate counters likely keeping Campbell cautious. If Nolan can dictate the pace, Campbell could find himself in a tough match.

Prediction: Nolan by decision