The UNC Tar Heels are set to face off against the Ole Miss Rebels in the NCAA Tournament, with the game scheduled to begin at 4:05 p.m. ET on TNT.
The Tar Heels are currently favored by 2.5 points, and the moneyline for UNC stands at -135. The over/under for the game is placed at 155.5 points.
Below are my predictions for the UNC vs. Ole Miss matchup and additional college basketball betting picks for March 21, 2025.
Prediction for UNC vs Ole Miss
My Pick: UNC -1.5
My best bet for the game is taking UNC to cover the spread, with the most favorable odds available at BetRivers. Remember to check our live NCAAB odds page for the best betting lines.
UNC vs Ole Miss Betting Odds
- Spread: UNC -2.5 (+100), Ole Miss +2.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 155.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Moneyline: UNC -135, Ole Miss +114
- Best Bet: UNC -1.5
Spread Analysis
I’m backing the Tar Heels to cover the spread in this matchup.
Moneyline Analysis
Although UNC is the expected winner, the spread offers better betting value.
Over/Under Analysis
I do not have a specific play on the total points for this game.
My Pick: UNC -1.5
Betting Preview for UNC vs Ole Miss
Head coach Hubert Davis’ group silenced their critics by decisively defeating San Diego State by nearly 40 points in the First Four on Tuesday.
While I may be overly influenced by recent events, I’m skeptical about Ole Miss. The Rebels have struggled defensively, placing 81st in Bart Torvik’s defensive efficiency rankings since February 1. To claim victory over North Carolina, teams need to follow a strategy akin to Duke’s and put strong defensive pressure on the Heels.
Competitors can’t engage in a fast-paced game with them.
Unfortunately for Ole Miss, their defensive statistics over the past six weeks are concerning, including being ranked outside the top 300 in areas such as two-point and three-point field goal percentages, defensive rebounding rates, and free throw percentages.
Challenges also exist on offense, as Ole Miss has shot just 32% from beyond the arc in their last 12 games. UNC has managed to limit opponents from the free-throw line, placing 137th in free throw rate during their last 14 games, which benefits the Tar Heels.
The success of UNC’s offense, which relies on quick transition scoring, could be detrimental to Ole Miss. The Tar Heels have shot an impressive 42% from three-point range in their last 14 outings, making them a formidable opponent.
RJ Davis is critical for UNC’s shooting performance; his success directly impacts the team’s overall effectiveness. He has had standout performances recently but has also had off games, which could be pivotal in determining the outcome.
North Carolina’s frontcourt has shown improved performance lately, with Ven-Allen Lubin taking a leading role. This resurgence in the paint strengthens the Heels against a struggling Ole Miss, which appears to be wobbling into the tournament while UNC seems to be hitting their stride.
Most wagers currently favor the Tar Heels, especially after their strong showing against a top-15 defense, placing them in a favorable position.
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