One of the most enjoyable aspects of maintaining our daily Forecaster projections—my favorite task in fantasy baseball—is uncovering statistical oddities that regularly appear.
As I analyzed early trends from the 2025 season, especially now that a quarter of the games have been played, I focused on the matchups highlighted by the Forecaster projections model. This information can be crucial for making optimal lineup decisions in ESPN standard leagues.
A’s and Rays: Time of Day Insights
Sutter Health Park and George M. Steinbrenner Field, which serve as temporary homes for the Athletics and the Tampa Bay Rays, have proven to be the hitter-friendly venues we anticipated. However, the specifics of when they are most conducive to hitting show some surprising trends.
So far, the Rays’ park boasts the second-highest home run park factor at 1.33, indicating a 33% increase in home runs compared to average parks. The Athletics’ park ranks third at 1.23, with both parks following only Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park (1.36) for home runs. In terms of runs scored, Sutter Health Park is second (1.26) while Steinbrenner Field is third (1.11).
Interestingly, when examining the data segmented by time of day, Sutter Health Park has become a highly offensive venue (1.34 for home runs and 1.39 for runs during night games) but is much more neutral during the daytime. Conversely, Steinbrenner Field has been favorable for hitters during the day while favoring pitchers at night (0.95 home run, 0.87 runs scored factors).
Streaming Matchups: The Good and the Bad
The Cincinnati Reds represent an unexpectedly favorable matchup for opposing starters despite being a top-10 team in runs per game. Although they thrive in their hitter-friendly home environment, their overall lineup does not inspire fear universally.
According to the Forecaster projections, the Reds are rated as the fifth worst-hitting team against right-handed pitchers, making them susceptible to exploitation. Four of the last seven right-handed pitchers facing the Reds have scored 20-plus fantasy points—more than any other team during that stretch, which bodes well for upcoming right-handed opponents.
