The prospect of Alexander Isak wanting to leave Newcastle United is one aspect; finding a buyer capable of affording him presents a different challenge altogether.
Newcastle aims to initiate any serious discussions around a transfer fee starting from a staggering £150million ($203m). To put this in perspective, such a fee would position Isak as the third most expensive footballer ever, following Neymar and Kylian Mbappe of Paris Saint-Germain.
Financial Implications
The list of potential suitors appears limited. Aside from footballing factors, the financial implications are considerable and pose a clear barrier for many clubs considering a move for Isak.
Acquiring Isak for £150m effectively translates to about £171m when accounting for estimated agent fees, and for clubs in the Premier League, an additional four percent transfer levy. From the perspective of profit and sustainability rules (PSR), these fees, spread over a five-year contract, would add £33m-£35m to a club’s annual expenses.
Wages Consideration
Moreover, Isak’s wage expectations are unclear but likely in the range of £250,000 to £300,000 weekly. At this level, the annual cost to a club would amount to between £15m and £18m.
In essence, signing Isak could impose about £50m in yearly expenses on his new club, just from an accounting standpoint. It’s crucial to remember that clubs must eventually pay the sums in cash, potentially pushing Isak’s total cost over £250m over a five-year agreement.
Potential Buyers in Serie A, Bundesliga, & Ligue 1
In Italy, Juventus have recorded losses of around £670m over the past four years, while Milan and Inter are in recovery but would find Isak’s fee a significant burden. Napoli, the Serie A champions, have shown financial strength recently but would still face challenges given their current wage structure.
In Germany, Eintracht Frankfurt has some financial leeway due to player sales but is unlikely to commit to Isak’s level of expense. Borussia Dortmund’s financial footing is healthier, but signing Isak seems out of reach given current spending levels. Bayern Munich could afford him but have other priorities, reducing the likelihood of a transaction.
In France, only PSG realistically has the capability to buy Isak, leveraging their large earnings from Champions League participation. They would have to navigate UEFA’s financial regulations, which adds complexity to any potential deal.
Challenges in La Liga & Premier League
In Spain, both Barcelona and Atletico Madrid face severe financial hurdles that would impede their ability to secure Isak. Real Madrid, despite boasting substantial revenues, has pressing needs in other areas and has already spent heavily on recent signings, making a deal for Isak improbable.
Turning to the Premier League, Tottenham has some regulatory capacity but struggles with cash flow and wage management. Chelsea might have the financial backing but is currently navigating a UEFA settlement that complicates their spending options. Arsenal’s recent transfer activity casts doubt on their ability to afford Isak despite a lucrative revenue stream.
Manchester Considerations
Manchester City could accommodate Isak financially, given their considerable profit margins in recent seasons. However, footballing logic may complicate his arrival there. Meanwhile, Manchester United, while financially challenged, could technically meet his fee but face liquidity issues, resulting in a highly unlikely transfer.
Possibility of a Move to Al Hilal
Outside of the Premier League, Al Hilal represents a unique scenario as both they and Newcastle are owned by the same Saudi fund. Al Hilal has already made significant investments and could easily afford Isak. However, under Premier League rules, such a transaction would require a ‘fair market value assessment,’ which could complicate Newcastle’s financial standing.
Moreover, sales to related parties like Al Hilal would need to be recorded at zero profit under UEFA regulations, further complicating Newcastle’s financial situation. Thus, while a lucrative deal is possible, the ramifications could hinder Newcastle’s long-term fiscal health.
