Nvidia (NVDA 1.26%) is currently the world’s most valuable company, boasting a market capitalization of $3.4 trillion. This achievement can be attributed to an incredible surge in its stock price, which has increased by over 1,500% in the last five years.
Investors are now curious whether Nvidia can continue to thrive in the next five years after such a remarkable performance. Some analysts predict that the semiconductor giant’s stock could soar even more, potentially reaching a valuation of $6 trillion by the decade’s end. Let’s delve into the factors that could contribute to Nvidia reaching this milestone by 2030.
Nvidia’s AI-Driven Growth Remains Strong
The increasing demand for Nvidia’s AI chips has been the primary driver behind its stock’s impressive rise in recent years. Notably, even as it faces challenges like export restrictions to vital markets such as China, Nvidia continues to generate substantial revenue from its AI chip segment.
Nvidia’s latest earnings report for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending April 27) revealed a 69% year-over-year revenue increase to $44.1 billion. This was achieved even with an estimated $2.5 billion revenue loss due to sales restrictions in China, and a $4.5 billion write-down for inventory intended for the Chinese market.
Despite the anticipated $8 billion revenue hit in the upcoming quarter due to China-related issues, Nvidia’s guidance still anticipates a 50% increase in revenue year-over-year, with earnings projected to grow by 44%. CEO Jensen Huang acknowledged that the $50 billion Chinese market is effectively off-limits for U.S. companies like Nvidia, yet analysts have raised their revenue forecasts.
Expanding Opportunities Beyond China
Nvidia is capitalizing on significant opportunities in AI chips beyond the Chinese market, including new markets like Saudi Arabia, where it plans to establish AI factories powered by its cutting-edge GPUs over the next five years. Large-scale AI infrastructure projects like Stargate are already providing benefits that may offset the losses from China.
According to McKinsey & Company, investments of around $5.2 trillion may be required by 2030 to create AI-capable data centers capable of handling training and inference workloads. Investors should thus remain optimistic about Nvidia’s long-term growth potential, as the expansive opportunities in the AI data center sector promise continued healthy growth over the coming five years.
The Path to a $6 Trillion Valuation
Nvidia currently trades at 23 times its sales, which is three times higher than the average price-to-sales ratio in the U.S. tech sector. However, its leading position in AI chips and the promising outlook for this market help justify this valuation.
Projected revenue could reach $292 billion in three years; maintaining its sales multiple could propel Nvidia past a $6 trillion valuation by then. Even if growth decelerates post-fiscal 2028 to a 15% annual rate, it still may reach $386 billion in annual revenue after five years. At a 15 times sales multiple, it could achieve a $6 trillion valuation by 2030, making it an attractive long-term investment for those seeking upside in AI stocks.
