After dedicating many hours to fantasy draft prep—or perhaps following my “Exodia” strategies and feeling confident—it’s now the crucial moment for securing fantasy championships. The excitement of your draft has faded, and we’re bombarded with weekly NFL updates.
Fortunately, I’m here to help you navigate through the clutter, distinguishing valuable information from the rest, and guide you in managing your rosters for ongoing success. Welcome to “The Week 7 Everything Report.”
This task would be daunting without the support of knowledgeable analysts and the insights provided by the Fantasy Points Data Suite. This is our advantage.
One of our best resources is the “Expected Fantasy Points” (XFP) metric, which estimates how many fantasy points an average player would score given normal conditions based on various factors including target volume, location, and depth. While most of your competitors track player fantasy points or total touches, we can better identify players needing regression by comparing their XFP to actual performance.
However, this isn’t always straightforward. Some players and offenses are skilled enough to consistently perform above their XFP, while others will consistently underperform. Throughout the season, roles will shift, unexpected offensive surges will occur, and some will underwhelm. To clarify everything, we’ll draw extensively from our data resources to provide a comprehensive overview every week.
Top-30 XFP Leaderboard
2 Key Takeaways
1. Is Brian Thomas Jr. Back?
The answer is a resounding yes. While his recent performance—8 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown (23.0 fantasy points)—came against an injury-depleted Seahawks’ secondary, there are strong indicators he’s on track to become the top-12 WR you anticipated.
Initially, it seems he played through injuries earlier in the season. Although some questioned this, reports confirm he entered Week 2 with a wrist injury that lingered into Weeks 3 and 4. Since recovering, he’s averaged 85 receiving yards per game, which ranks him among the top 5 WRs this season.
His experience mirrors a dip in form as a rookie after a chest injury. Many identified that as a buying opportunity, suggesting he struggles through injuries while appearing hesitant at times.
His first-read target share has been impressive, with 37% in 2 of his last 3 games—among only 13 WRs achieving multiple such games this season. Coupled with the lack of competition in the Jaguars’ receiving corps, there’s a fair chance he’ll exceed expectations moving forward.
As part of a top-5 offense, with favorable future matchups, I would recommend acquiring him at back-end WR2 prices while maintaining confidence in his potential this season.
