This article was originally featured in Foreign Policy, the magazine of global politics and ideas.
Reflections on War and Negotiation
As President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine prepares for peace talks to resolve the ongoing war with Russia, it’s essential for him to consider past insights from the conflict. In November 2022, Mark Milley, then U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, delivered a speech in New York that, although controversial, contained valuable thoughts on how to potentially conclude this war effectively.
Realities of War
Milley recognized a fundamental truth about warfare: despite the engaging narratives often spun by politicians, the outcomes of conflicts are ultimately decided on the battlefield. He challenged the notion of Ukraine recovering all occupied territories by stating that “victory is probably not achievable through military means” and suggested that Ukraine had reached a stalemate. His recommendation was for Ukraine to pursue a “window of opportunity for negotiation” instead.
Historical Lessons
Milley’s remarks echoed the ideas of Prussian General Carl von Clausewitz, who posited that war must serve a political purpose. If Ukraine has met the limits of what it can achieve militarily, can it justify continuing the fight? A year after Milley’s comments, General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, his Ukrainian counterpart, acknowledged a similar sentiment, stating that a “stalemate” was now a reality.
Changing Dynamics in Leadership
Zaluzhnyi took an unprecedented step by publicly addressing the harsh truths of the situation in Ukraine. In an interview with the Economist in November 2023, he indicated that the conflict had transitioned to “positional” warfare akin to World War I, allowing Russia to rebuild its military, ultimately posing greater threats to Ukraine.
Current Assessments
As the war progresses into its fourth year, leaders like U.S. President Donald Trump are beginning to recognize similar stark realities. If negotiations driven by Milley’s earlier insights had succeeded, the scale of loss in terms of lives and infrastructure could have been dramatically different. Thousands of Ukrainian lives and countless civilian casualties might have been spared, with significant parts of the nation still intact.
Future Negotiation Strategies
In light of the current standoff, Zelensky should concentrate on the achievements of the Ukrainian forces and strategize for a realistic peace. This necessitates acknowledging the significant power of Trump’s position and adapting to the geopolitical landscape shaped by Russia. By seeking pragmatic approaches to ceasefire agreements and ensuring that any peaceful resolution is sustainable, Ukraine can aim for a viable future amidst the complex dynamics of great power influences.
